国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251105

Report Overview - Date: November 5, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to experience weak oscillations due to sector sentiment [2][7] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide - range fluctuations influenced by sector sentiment and supply - demand dynamics [2][11] - Coke and coking coal are predicted to fluctuate at high levels [2][14] - Logs are expected to have repeated oscillations [2][16] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The previous day's futures closing price was 775.5 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan or 0.89%. The positions increased by 12,824 hands. Spot prices of various iron ore types decreased by 2 yuan/ton, except for domestic ores which remained unchanged. The basis and some spreads changed slightly [4] - News: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 [5] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: The previous day's closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 futures were 3,044 yuan/ton and 3,265 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan (-1.42%) and 34 yuan (-1.03%) respectively. Spot prices in major cities decreased. The basis increased, and some spreads changed [7] - News: In mid - October 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel decreased by 0.9%, pig iron by 1.3%, and steel increased by 0.8%. On October 30, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed certain changes. Five departments supported commercial real estate REITs issuance. The 15th Five - Year Plan proposed directions for the steel industry. In September, China's steel exports increased while imports also rose slightly [8][9][10] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The basis and various spreads changed [11] - News: Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the centralized cancellation date of ferrosilicon and urea in February 2026. There were price quotes and electricity price changes in the ferrosilicon and manganese - silicon markets. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities were announced [11][12][13] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [13] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Futures prices of coking coal and coke decreased. Some spot prices of coking coal increased, while others remained unchanged. Coke spot prices were mostly stable. The basis and spreads changed [14] - News: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 [15] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [15] Logs - Fundamentals: Futures prices of different log contracts showed different degrees of decline. Trading volumes and positions also changed significantly. Spot prices of most log types were stable, with a small number showing slight decreases [17] - News: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 [19] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [19]