新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-5）-20251105

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Weakly volatile in the short term [2] - Coking coal and coke: Strongly volatile in the short term [2] - Rebar: Volatile adjustment [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Stock index futures/options: Long positions in stock indices are recommended [4] - Treasury bonds: Long positions in treasury bonds with light positions are recommended [4] - Gold: High-level volatility [4] - Silver: High-level volatility [4] - Logs: Weakly volatile [6] - Pulp: Consolidation at the bottom [6] - Offset paper: Volatile [6] - Edible oils: Range-bound operation [6] - Hog: Strongly volatile [7] - Rubber: Volatile [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Volatile [10] - MEG: Weak [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [10] Core Views - The macro利好 has landed, and the prices of black commodities are returning to fundamentals. The iron ore market is characterized by loose supply, low demand, and increasing port inventories, with a difficult-to-reverse oversupply situation. The coking coal and coke market has been boosted by multiple news, but the low profit margins of steel mills remain a core contradiction. The rebar market's price stability depends on production cuts and anti-"involution" policies. The glass market is affected by production line cold repairs and weak demand. The stock index futures/options market is expected to have an upward medium-term trend. The treasury bond market shows a slight rebound. The gold market's pricing mechanism is shifting, and its price is influenced by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and other factors. The log market is facing weakening demand and increasing supply pressure. The pulp market is under pressure from cost and demand. The edible oil market has abundant supply and weak demand. The hog market is expected to see a price increase. The rubber market's price is likely to fluctuate widely. The PX and PTA markets are affected by cost and supply-demand relationships. The MEG market has an expected oversupply. The PR and PF markets are expected to be weak [2][4][6][7][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China reached 33.141 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.298 million tons or 59%. The high level of molten iron has declined, and the core lies in steel demand. The real estate new construction has returned to the 2005 level, and domestic demand remains weak. Port iron ore inventories continue to increase, and the market is in an oversupply situation, with short-term prices expected to be weakly volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Multiple news has boosted the prices of coking coal and coke. The supply concerns in the industrial sector have intensified, and the subsequent environmental protection and safety supervision may affect other production areas. The low profit margins of steel mills are the core contradiction, and the logic of steel mills reducing production due to losses continues to ferment. Coke has started the third round of price increases, and the short-term trend is strongly volatile [2] - Rebar: The macro利好 has landed, and the price is returning to fundamentals. The static valuation of rebar is low, and the core lies in steel demand. The real estate new construction has returned to the 2005 level, and domestic demand remains weak. The steel price's stop-falling depends on production cuts and anti-"involution" policies. The steel supply-demand contradiction still exists, and the price is expected to be volatile [2] - Glass: The news of coal-to-gas conversion and production line cold repairs in Shahe has fermented. The real estate completion has been declining, dragging down the demand outlook. The glass demand is weak, and the enterprise inventory has been increasing. The glass daily melting volume needs to be reduced to 154,000 tons by the end of the year to resolve the overcapacity in the entire industry chain. The short-term focus is on production line cold repairs and the impact of macro and production reduction policies [2] Financial Sector - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw declines in the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices. The forestry and banking sectors had capital inflows, while the chemical fertilizer and pesticide and precious metal sectors had capital outflows. The market is expected to have an upward medium-term trend, and long positions in stock indices are recommended [4] - Treasury bonds: The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 117.5 billion yuan, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net withdrawal of funds on the day was 357.8 billion yuan. The treasury bond spot rates are consolidating, and the market trend is slightly rebounding. Long positions in treasury bonds with light positions are recommended [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The Trump administration's "Make America Great Again" bill may exacerbate the US debt problem, leading to cracks in the US dollar's currency credit. Geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases are important factors driving up the gold price. The short-term factors affecting the gold price include the Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment. The gold price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [4] Light Industry - Logs: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports decreased by 0.16 million cubic meters week-on-week. The demand is expected to weaken as the downstream enters the off-season. The import volume of logs is seasonally increasing, and the supply pressure is increasing. The port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The spot market price is weakly volatile, and the price of logs is expected to be weakly volatile [6] - Pulp: The spot market price of pulp was stable in the previous trading day. The latest foreign market price of softwood pulp decreased by $20 to $680 per ton, and that of hardwood pulp increased by $20 to $540 per ton. The cost support for pulp prices has weakened. The papermaking industry's profitability is low, and the demand for pulp is weak. The pulp price is expected to be consolidated at the bottom [6] - Offset paper: The spot market price of offset paper was stable in the previous trading day. The new production capacity in South China has increased, and the supply pressure remains. The start-up rate has recovered, and publishing tenders have been launched, but the market expectation is cautious. The paper price profit is low, and the enthusiasm for high-price inventory is low. The price is expected to be volatile [6] Agricultural Products - Edible oils: The US government shutdown has led to a lack of official data, and the market is worried about US soybean exports. The palm oil production in major producing countries is at the end of the peak season, and the inventory is at a high level, putting pressure on the market. The implementation of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy may be postponed, weakening the market's confidence in long-term demand. The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the demand for edible oils is weak. The edible oil market is expected to be range-bound [6] - Hog: The average transaction weight of hogs has decreased slightly. The small farmers' bullish expectations and the scale farms' adjustment of the slaughter rhythm have led to a slight decline in the average transaction weight. The demand for large hogs has increased due to the temperature drop, and the slaughter enterprises' purchase weight has increased slightly. The settlement price of hogs has increased, and the secondary fattening enthusiasm has increased. The supply of hogs is relatively abundant, and the demand for pork has increased with the temperature drop. The hog price is expected to increase next week [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: The weather in Yunnan has improved, and the raw material output has gradually recovered, but the rubber tapping profit is negative. The glue production in Hainan is lower than expected due to rain and typhoons, but the raw material price has decreased, and the profit inversion has improved. The cup rubber price in Thailand has continued to rise, and the rubber tapping in Vietnam has been affected by rainfall. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has increased, and the natural rubber inventory has continued to decline. The natural rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely [10] - PX: The manufacturing data in the US and Japan are in decline, and the strengthening of the US dollar has suppressed the oil price rebound. The short-term supply of PX has increased while the demand has decreased, and the medium-term supply-demand pressure remains. The PXN spread has limited room for further rebound, and the PX price follows the oil price [10] - PTA: The medium- and long-term oil price is expected to be weak, and the PXN spread has limited upward space, weakening the cost support. The PTA supply has decreased marginally, but new plants are under trial operation. The downstream polyester factory load has slightly increased, and the overall supply-demand situation has marginally improved. The short-term price follows the cost [10] - MEG: The arrival volume last week increased, and the domestic production load recovered, with the overall supply at a high level. The polyester load has some resilience in the short term, but there are concerns after the peak season. The future supply-demand is expected to be in surplus. The short-term cost fluctuates greatly, and the long-term inventory pressure suppresses the price [10] - PR: The decline in the oil price has led to a lack of support for raw materials. Coupled with the stalemate in the supply-demand relationship, the polyester bottle chip market is expected to be weak [10] - PF: The overnight oil price has decreased, and both raw materials have shown an increase in supply, lacking obvious positive support. The polyester staple fiber market is expected to be weakly sorted today [10]