冠通期货资讯早间报-20251105

Report Summary 1. Overnight Night Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 1.81% at $3,941.30 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 2.40% at $46.90 per ounce [4]. - U.S. crude oil and Brent crude oil futures declined, with the U.S. oil main contract down 1.02% at $60.43 per barrel and the Brent crude main contract down 0.85% at $64.34 per barrel [5]. - London base metals fell across the board, with LME copper down 1.90% at $10,649.00 per ton, LME aluminum down 1.26% at $2,865.50 per ton, etc. [5]. - Most domestic futures main contracts fell, with caustic soda down over 2%, while glass rose over 1% [6]. - As of 2:30, the Shanghai gold main contract was down 1.14%, the Shanghai silver main contract was down 1.17%, and the SC crude oil main contract was down 0.19% [8]. 2. Important Information Macro Information - The People's Bank of China conducted 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on November 5, 2025, with a term of 3 months. In October 2025, the net investment in the open - market Treasury bond trading was 20 billion yuan, the first time this year [10]. - China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) Vice - Chairman Li Ming said that the CSRC would plan and introduce more powerful opening - up measures, including improving cross - border investment and financing facilitation, deepening cooperation between the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong capital markets, and strengthening supervision and risk prevention capabilities [10]. - The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Logistics Prosperity Index for October, which remained in the expansion range at 50.7%, down 0.5 percentage points month - on - month [10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - In October, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers reached 1.61 million, a year - on - year increase of 16% and a month - on - month increase of 7%. From January to October, the cumulative wholesale sales were 12.054 million, a year - on - year increase of 30% [12]. - Iraq's Prime Minister Sudani ordered a halt to the import of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene [14]. - Libya's oil minister considered increasing oil production to 1.6 million barrels per day next year and 1.8 million barrels per day in 2027, with a goal of reaching 2 million barrels per day in five years. Current production is about 1.4 million barrels per day [14]. Metal Futures - In November, the expected domestic polysilicon production was 120,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 10.4%, and the global production was about 125,800 tons [16]. - As of the end of September, 1,176 overseas institutions had entered the domestic bond market, holding bonds worth 3.8 trillion yuan. In June, the Shanghai Gold Exchange's international board designated warehouse of Bank of China (Hong Kong) was put into use [16]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin ratio and daily price limit of alumina futures contracts starting from November 7 [16]. - TBEA denied the rumor that its polysilicon production capacity would be acquired [16]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading fees of cast aluminum alloy futures, offset printing paper futures, and their options starting from November 10 [17][18]. - The CEO of Codelco was optimistic about copper prices. The expected copper production in 2025 was 1.31 - 1.34 million tons, lower than the previous estimate. It would take three years to restore normal operation at the Teniente mine [18]. Black - Series Futures - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai planned to raise the prices of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan per ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan per ton starting from November 5 [20]. - From October 27 to November 2, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.2168 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 58,500 tons, showing a slight inventory build - up [20]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange planned to modify the coking coal futures contract and related business rules and was seeking public opinions on adjusting the coking coal delivery quality standards [20]. Agricultural Product Futures - Palm oil inventory was expected to surge 3.5% in October to 2.44 million tons, the highest since October 2023. The estimated production of crude palm oil in October was 1.94 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.6%, and exports were expected to grow 3.8% to 1.48 million tons [22]. - As of October 31, the inventory of imported soybeans at major domestic oil mills was 7.65 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 430,000 tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.14 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 90,000 tons [24]. - The average national price of piglets was 24.78 yuan per kilogram, down 1.4% from the previous week and 29.7% year - on - year. The average national price of live pigs was 12.76 yuan per kilogram, up 3.6% from the previous week and down 29.0% year - on - year [24]. - As of the end of the 44th week of 2025, the domestic palm oil inventory was 555,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week, and the contract volume was 45,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons [24]. - The Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB) estimated that the sugar production in the 2025/26 season would be 45.02 million tons, and the sugarcane production would be 666.45 million tons [25]. 3. Financial Market Finance - CSRC Vice - Chairman Li Ming said that more powerful opening - up measures would be introduced, including improving the quality and efficiency of overseas listing filings, expanding the scope of the Shanghai - Hong Kong and Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect programs, etc. [27] - The lists of the first - class and second - class libraries of performance comparison benchmark elements for public funds were released, mainly including stock indices [28][29]. - The A - share market adjusted with shrinking trading volume, with more than 3,600 stocks falling. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.41% at 3,960.19 points, the Shenzhen Component Index was down 1.71%, and the ChiNext Index was down 1.96%. The total trading volume was 1.94 trillion yuan [29]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 0.79% at 25,952.4 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index was down 1.76%. Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$9.832 billion [29]. - In October, the number of new A - share accounts was 2.31 million, a year - on - year decrease of 66% and a month - on - month decrease of 21%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative number of new A - share accounts was 22.46 million, a year - on - year increase of 11% [30]. - Southbound funds had been continuously increasing their positions in the Hong Kong stock market, with a cumulative net inflow of more than HK$1.27 trillion this year, setting a new annual record [30]. - Well - known foreign institutions such as Goldman Sachs and UBS had surveyed 309 A - share listed companies since October, mainly in high - growth industries. As of the end of the third quarter, QFII institutions appeared in the top ten tradable shareholders of 856 A - share listed companies, and their total holdings were worth 150.4 billion yuan, an increase of more than 33 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024 [30]. - Brokerage firms' outlooks for the Hong Kong stock market in 2026 suggested that fundamental improvement might drive the market, and AI industry catalysts could boost the ROE of relevant sectors. Foreign and southbound funds were expected to continue flowing in, and sectors such as technology, innovative drugs, and brokers were worth attention [31]. - The number of Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market) listed companies had exceeded 590, with IPO fundraising exceeding 900 billion yuan. The STAR Market's growth - oriented layer had 35 companies, with their revenue growing 35.1% year - on - year and net loss narrowing 45.4% in the first three quarters of this year [33]. - Leapmotor denied the rumor that it would be acquired by FAW [33]. Industry - The 2025 drug catalog negotiation ended, with 127 off - catalog drugs participating in the basic medical insurance negotiation and 24 drugs in the commercial insurance innovative drug price negotiation. Some CAR - T drugs had successful negotiations [34]. - Five departments issued a document to promote the standardized application of "AI + healthcare" [34]. - The estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in October were 1.61 million, a year - on - year increase of 16%. Tesla China's shipments were 61,497, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 32.3% [34]. - The China Logistics Prosperity Index in October was 50.7%, down 0.5 percentage points month - on - month [34]. - Guizhou Province planned to promote the transformation from "selling alcohol" to "selling a lifestyle" and implement "alcohol +" industrial integration actions [36]. - Several storage backend packaging and testing factories received additional orders and planned price increases [36]. Overseas - The U.S. federal government's shutdown entered the 35th day as the Senate failed to pass a temporary appropriation bill [37]. - The U.S. Supreme Court would hear a case on the legality of Trump's tariff policy, and the U.S. Treasury Secretary would attend [37]. - Japan's "Japan Growth Strategy Headquarters" decided to focus investment on 17 strategic sectors [37]. - The expectation of a December interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan was under pressure as the Japanese Prime Minister hoped for appropriate monetary policy to achieve 2% inflation [37]. - South Korea's 2026 budget was expected to increase 8.1% to 728 trillion won, with 10.1 trillion won for AI development, more than twice the current level [37]. - South Korea's CPI in October increased 2.4% year - on - year, the fastest since July 2024, which might prompt the central bank to pause rate cuts [39]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the key interest rate at 3.6% and warned of increasing inflation pressure [39]. International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.53%, the S&P 500 down 1.,17%, and the Nasdaq down 2.04%. Tech stocks led the decline, and some well - known institutions warned of a possible market correction [40]. - The Japanese and South Korean stock markets corrected after hitting record highs, with the Nikkei 225 down 1.74% and the South Korean Composite Index down 2.37% [40]. - European stocks closed mixed, with the German DAX down 0.76%, the French CAC40 down 0.52%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.14% [41]. - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley warned of a possible 10% - 20% correction in the global stock market in the next two years but were still optimistic about China, Japan, and India [41]. - Nokia planned to delist from the Euronext Paris while remaining listed on the Nasdaq Helsinki and the New York Stock Exchange [43]. - Nintendo raised its sales forecast for Switch2 by 4 million units to 19 million units and its annual operating profit forecast by 16% to 370 billion yen [43]. - Saudi Aramco's Q3 net profit was 104.92 billion riyals (about $28 billion), a slight year - on - year increase of 0.9%, and its total revenue exceeded market expectations [44]. - Pfizer's Q3 revenue decreased 6% year - on - year to $16.65 billion, but its adjusted EPS increased 18% to $0.87, and the company raised its full - year profit forecast [45]. - Uber's Q3 adjusted EBITDA increased 33% year - on - year to $2.26 billion, but its operating profit was lower than expected. The company expected slower growth in Q4 total bookings [45]. Commodity - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin ratio and daily price limit of alumina futures contracts and the trading fees of cast aluminum alloy and offset printing paper futures and their options [46][47]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange planned to adjust the coking coal delivery quality standards [48]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the centralized cancellation date of ferrosilicon and urea varieties in February 2026 [49]. - International precious metal futures, crude oil futures, and London base metals all closed lower [49]. Bond - The domestic bond market was weak, with most interest - rate bond yields rising slightly and most Treasury bond futures contracts falling. The yields of U.S. Treasury bonds fell across the board [50]. - The default rate of U.S. office building CMBS reached 11.8% in October, exceeding the 2008 peak, and the default rate of multi - family residential CMBS also increased sharply [52]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar closed at 7.1233 on Tuesday, down 8 basis points from the previous trading day, and the RMB central parity rate was 7.0885, down 18 basis points [53]. - The Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar fell to its lowest level since February, and the Japanese finance minister issued a warning. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.34% [53]. 4. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - A series of economic data such as China's October PMI, Germany's September manufacturing orders, and the U.S. October ADP employment data are to be released [56]. - Events include the release of the Bank of Japan's September monetary policy meeting minutes, the expiration of 557.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases by the People's Bank of China, and interest rate decisions by the Swedish and Brazilian central banks [58].