烧碱：趋势压力仍在

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is -1, indicating a weak bearish view [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market is under pressure in the short - term after a valuation repair, and in the long - term, the negative feedback in the industrial chain may occur due to alumina production cuts. The situation can only be changed by supply - side production cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On November 5, 2025, the 01 - contract futures price of caustic soda was 2336, the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong was 780, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2438, and the basis was 102 [2]. - On November 5, in Shandong, individual enterprises in southwestern and southern Shandong lowered their prices. Due to increased supply in the west, high - price products had poor sales, so they were sold at reduced prices [2]. Market Condition Analysis - The sharp decline in liquid chlorine prices over the weekend increased the cost of caustic soda significantly. However, caustic soda enterprises did not cut production, resulting in insufficient upward drivers [3]. - The pattern of high production and high inventory of caustic soda continues, and the market is continuously shorting the chlor - alkali profit. The impact of alumina's production - start and production - cut expectations on caustic soda basically offsets each other. The winter is a low - maintenance season for chlor - alkali enterprises, and the supply - demand gap caused by stockpiling may be limited. Non - aluminum downstream support is limited, and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure [3]. - In the long run, alumina production cuts will lead to negative feedback in the industrial chain, and only supply - side production cuts can change the situation. So, pay attention to the supply changes under the background of liquid chlorine and low profits [3].