原油：或再度下跌，逢高试空

Report Title - Crude Oil: Likely to Decline Again, Try Shorting on Rallies [1] Report Date - November 5, 2025 [1] Analyst Information - Analyst: Huang Liunan - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0015892 - Email: huangliunan@gtht.com [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Crude oil prices may decline again, and it is advisable to try shorting on rallies [1] Summary by Section International Crude Oil - WTI December crude oil futures closed down $0.49 per barrel, a 0.80% decline, at $60.56 per barrel - Brent December crude oil futures closed down $0.45 per barrel, a 0.69% decline, at $64.44 per barrel - SC2512 crude oil futures closed down 0.90 yuan per barrel, a 0.19% decline, at 464.30 yuan per barrel [1] Crude Oil Arbitrage - Mexico Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage: All arbitrage opportunities between WTI MEH and other benchmark crudes are closed due to negative refinery values, price differences, and other factors [2] - Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage: Bonny Light has open arbitrage opportunities with Forties, Arab Extra Light, Saharan Blend, and Urals, while it is closed with Cabinda [2][4] - Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage: Forties has open arbitrage opportunities with Eagle Ford, Azeri Light, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light, but it is closed with WTI MEH [4] - Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage: All arbitrage opportunities for Urals are closed due to negative refinery values and price differences [5][6] - Asia Crude Oil Arbitrage: Tapis has open arbitrage opportunities with Bonny Light and Eagle Ford, while it is closed with Murban, Dubai, WTI MEH [6] Key Market News - US API crude oil inventories for the week ending October 31 increased by 6521 thousand barrels, compared to a previous decrease of 4020 thousand barrels - The US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again, and the government shutdown is likely to become the longest in history - Libya's oil minister plans to increase oil production to 2 million barrels per day in the next five years - TotalEnergies CEO believes that global renewable energy will double by 2040, and there is no shortage of investment in the oil market - The US Energy Department's deputy minister said that energy demand is rising rapidly, and the US needs to replenish its strategic petroleum reserve [7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [8]