国投期货贵金属日报-20251105

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for precious metals is "★★★", indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The US October ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.7, slightly lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. With the Fed's internal differences, the US government shutdown, and the possible non - release of this week's non - farm payroll data, the market is waiting for new drivers, and precious metals are building a high - level oscillation platform, suggesting a temporary wait - and - see approach. Regarding silver, as the US dollar index rebounds, market risk appetite has weakened, and the gold - silver ratio may rise again [2] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to the 3.75% - 4.00% range last week, the second cut this year. However, Chairman Powell stated that "another rate cut is not a certainty", causing the probability of a December rate cut expected by traders to drop from nearly 100% a week ago to 65.3%, removing the interest - rate decline support for non - interest - bearing gold [2] - The doves advocate significant rate cuts, while the hawks are cautious about further rate cuts due to concerns about inflation and financial market risks. The market is in a "high - level interest - rate" stage, and gold prices face short - term callback risks due to uncertainties such as unclear Fed policies, data vacuum caused by the US government shutdown, and China's end of the gold tax - exemption policy [2][3]