对二甲苯:芳烃调油支撑估值,高位震荡市,PTA:需求尚可,供应压力仍存,高位震荡市,MEG:供应压力较大,趋势偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-05 02:01

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - PX is in a high - level volatile market with increasing supply and decreasing demand, following PTA unilaterally. Attention should be paid to shorting PXN on rallies. PTA is in a volatile market with weak cost support and oversupply, and shorting processing fees on rallies is recommended. MEG has a large supply pressure, with its price hitting a new low, and reverse - calendar spread trading on rallies is advised [1][9][10]. Summary According to Related Contents Market Dynamics - PX: The price of naphtha fell at the end of the session. The price of PX also dropped today. There were price discussions for December and January but no transactions. The market is also concerned about the 2026 PX term contracts [3]. - PTA: The spot price of PTA dropped to 4520 yuan/ton today [6]. - MEG: The planned arrival quantity at major ports from November 3rd to 9th is about 18.9 tons. A 260,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Inner Mongolia is restarting [6]. - Polyester: The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are generally weak, and the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers are also light [7]. Price and Spread Data - Futures: PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures had different price changes and spreads. For example, the closing price of PX futures was 6660, up 20 with a 0.30% increase [2]. - Spot: PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, etc. all had price changes. The PX CFR China price was 816 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars [2]. - Processing Fees: The PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, etc. also changed. The PX - naphtha spread was 239.83 dollars, down 3.88 dollars [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all - 1, indicating a weak trend [8]. Views and Suggestions - PX: Supply is tight, demand is high, and the PX - MX spread has strengthened. The domestic device start - up rate has reached a new high. Cost - end aromatics blending demand supports valuation. Pay attention to the future aromatics logistics changes [9]. - PTA: Cost support is weak, supply is excessive. Although the short - term inventory accumulation pressure has eased, the future inventory accumulation pattern is clear. Short processing fees when they are above 300 [9]. - MEG: The price hits a new low, the start - up rate of existing devices increases, and the supply pressure is large. The port inventory accumulation will accelerate. Reverse - calendar spread trading on rallies is recommended [10][11].

对二甲苯:芳烃调油支撑估值,高位震荡市,PTA:需求尚可,供应压力仍存,高位震荡市,MEG:供应压力较大,趋势偏弱 - Reportify