甲醇日评：延续震荡偏弱行情-20251105

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The methanol market continues to show a weak and volatile trend. The price of methanol is relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefins, and the short - term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream restocking drive. The inventory turning point may occur around mid - November, and the subsequent driving force may come from possible supply reductions, such as the gas - restriction expectation in Iran. It is recommended to wait before going long on methanol, and the current trading strategy is to stay on the sidelines [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Basis - Futures Prices: MA01 dropped from 2180 yuan/ton on October 31st to 2143 yuan/ton on November 3rd, a decrease of 1.70%; MA05 decreased from 2260 yuan/ton to 2239 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.93%; MA09 declined from 2240 yuan/ton to 2228 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54% [1]. - Spot Prices: Prices in most regions declined, with the largest drop in Taicang, from 2157.50 yuan/ton to 2097.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.78%. Prices in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei remained unchanged [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA decreased from - 22.50 yuan/ton to - 45.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Raw Material Prices - Coal Prices: The prices of coal with different calorific values increased. The price of Ordos Q5500 increased by 3.14%, Datong Q5500 by 2.35%, and Yulin Q6000 by 1.59% [1]. - Natural Gas Prices: The industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1]. 3.3 Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profit: The profit of coal - based methanol decreased by 14.24% from 210.70 yuan/ton to 180.70 yuan/ton, while the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained at - 1100 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream Profit: The profit of Northwest MTO decreased by 666.67%, while the profit of East China MTO increased by 12.80%. The profits of most downstream products such as acetic acid, MTBE, formaldehyde, and erquying increased [1]. 3.4 Important Information - Domestic: The main methanol contract MA2601 weakened, opening at 2182 yuan/ton, closing at 2143 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 1186632 lots and open interest of 1400566, showing increasing volume and open interest [1]. - Foreign: A 2.3 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country is under maintenance, and the overall methanol plant operating load in this country is maintained at 74.45%. As of November 2nd, about 80,000 tons of methanol are scheduled to be shipped from this country in November [1].