国债期货日报：央行买卖国债落地，国债期货涨跌分化-20251105

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Affected by the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading and the continuation of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, treasury bond futures showed a mixed performance yesterday. Overall, the increasing global trade uncertainty adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. The bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.10% month - on - month change and a - 0.30% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year change [9]. - Social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 3.42 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.79%; M2 year - on - year was 8.40%, with a decrease of 0.40% and a decline rate of 4.55%; Manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, with a decrease of 0.80% and a decline rate of 1.61% [10]. - The US dollar index was 100.21, with a month - on - month increase of 0.33 and a growth rate of 0.33%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1308, with an increase of 0.014 and a growth rate of 0.19%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.42, with an increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.21%; DR007 was 1.43, with an increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.53%; R007 was 1.53, with an increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.49%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.57, with an increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.45%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with an increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.45% [11]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific content provided other than referring to multiple figures related to the market, such as the closing price trend, price change rate, capital flow, and position ratio of treasury bond futures [12][14][16]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation The central bank conducted 117.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% on November 4, 2025. The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.315%, 1.415%, 1.478%, and 1.546% respectively, and the repurchase rates have declined recently [2]. IV. Spread Overview No specific content provided other than referring to figures related to various spreads, such as the inter - period spread of treasury bond futures and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [37]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than referring to figures related to the implied interest rate, IRR, and basis of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract [39]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than referring to figures related to the implied interest rate, IRR, and basis of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract [52]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than referring to figures related to the implied yield, IRR, and basis of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract [59]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than referring to figures related to the implied yield, IRR, and basis of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract [66]. Strategy - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase rates and the fluctuating prices of treasury bond futures, the 2512 contract is neutral [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].