新能源及有色金属日报：基本面矛盾有限，铅价维持震荡格局-20251105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Arbitrage: Suspended [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The raw material supply remains tight, pressuring the production of primary lead, while the secondary lead production is slowly resuming. The demand for lead-acid batteries from downstream is constrained by high lead prices, and the production cuts by enterprises have led to weaker consumption. Although the social inventory is at a historical low, it is expected to accumulate in November as supply recovers and imports arrive at the port. Overall, the lead price is suppressed by weak consumption on the upside and supported by costs on the downside, and is expected to maintain a volatile pattern. The report suggests paying attention to inventory changes and the pace of consumption recovery, with the expected lead price volatility range approximately between 16,900 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On November 4, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$28.32/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,250 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 10.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -75 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1]. Futures Market - On November 4, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,415 yuan/ton and closed at the same price, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 32,675 lots, a decrease of 2,303 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 66,092 lots, a decrease of 1,997 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a high of 17,490 yuan/ton and a low of 17,400 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,425 yuan/ton and closed at 17,435 yuan/ton, a 0.06% decrease from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, the quotes of holders were at a discount of 120 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2512 contract for ex-factory sales, and later the discount widened to 170 yuan/ton for transactions. In Hunan, smelters with low inventories held firm on prices, with quotes at a premium of 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex-factory sales. Some manufacturers mainly fulfilled long-term contracts and suspended spot sales. In Yunnan, holders sold at a discount of 200 - 250 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for a small amount of transactions. With the lead price oscillating strongly, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream battery enterprises improved slightly, and market transactions were fair [2]. Inventory - On November 4, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the same period last week. As of November 5, the LME lead inventory was 212,525 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. The report suggests that due to the current situation of raw material supply and demand and inventory trends, the lead price is expected to remain volatile, and investors should pay attention to inventory changes and consumption recovery [3]. - Arbitrage: Suspended [3]