石化反内卷：优化老旧产能，聚焦新材料：石化行业2026年度策略

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase Holding" which indicates a potential increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index [100]. Core Insights - The global ethylene industry is entering a phase of capacity clearing, with outdated capacity accounting for 18% of the total global ethylene capacity of 230 million tons in 2024 [47]. - The European ethylene market is experiencing a shutdown trend, with companies like Shell closing down significant production facilities [47]. - The domestic ethylene market is expected to achieve supply-demand balance within three years, driven by the growth of downstream demand [57]. - The plastic recycling market has significant growth potential under the backdrop of carbon reduction, with global plastic recycling rates currently below 10% [59]. Summary by Sections Ethylene Industry - Global ethylene capacity is projected to reach 230 million tons in 2024, with a significant portion of this capacity being outdated [45]. - The trade dynamics of ethylene are expected to be restructured as supply-demand conditions tighten in regions like Japan, Africa, and Europe [48]. Domestic Market - The domestic ethylene market is anticipated to balance supply and demand in approximately three years, influenced by the growth in downstream sectors [57]. - The development of new materials driven by emerging fields such as photovoltaics and lithium batteries is accelerating the domestic market's transition [57]. Recycling and Sustainability - The global plastic recycling market is poised for growth, driven by policy and capital investments, despite current low recycling rates [59]. - The polyester recycling sector shows significant scale effects and carbon reduction benefits, making it a key area for development [59]. Company Developments - Several domestic companies are actively developing the RPET (Recycled PET) industry chain, with various technological approaches and production capacities planned for the coming years [64].