新能源及有色金属日报：市场普跌铜价同样呈现回落，关注价跌后下游反应情况-20251105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: Short put [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current tight supply at the mine end and the continuously low TC prices remain unchanged. Overseas smelters are exploring new processing fee pricing logics, and China's Non - Ferrous Metals Supply Association has proposed setting an upper limit on some non - ferrous metal smelting capacities. The positive factors on the demand side are mostly at the expected level, and actual consumption may not be outstanding. The November strategy is to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the recommended buying range between 85,500 yuan/ton and 86,000 yuan/ton. When the price approaches 89,000 yuan/ton, sell - hedging can be carried out [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Key Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On November 4, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 87,430 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 85,740 yuan/ton, a - 1.79% decline from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 85,000 yuan/ton and closed at 85,690 yuan/ton, a 0.06% decline from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - The domestic spot 1 electrolytic copper was quoted between 86,290 and 86,890 yuan/ton. The spot market showed a discount of 70 to a premium of 70 yuan/ton to the current - month contract, and the average price increased slightly by 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Shanghai copper price dropped from 86,800 yuan/ton to around 86,400 yuan/ton during the day, and the import loss of the current - month contract narrowed to about 800 yuan/ton. Downstream buyers generally expected the copper price to fall further and were conservative in purchasing. If the copper price falls below 86,000 yuan/ton, it may stimulate some purchases, but the market is still bearish. As the spread between near - and far - month contracts narrows, holders may lower premiums to promote transactions [2]. 3.2 Important Information Summary 3.2.1 Macro - news - The U.S. Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again, and the federal government's "shutdown" entered the 35th day, tying the longest "shutdown" record in U.S. history. The U.S. Supreme Court will hear whether Trump's tariff policy is legal this Wednesday [3]. 3.2.2 Mine End - The general election in Tanzania caused unrest, leading to the temporary closure of the Dar es Salaam Port, an important hub for African copper exports to China. About two - thirds of copper shipments to China are transshipped through this port, resulting in shipping delays, increased logistics and insurance costs, and some cargo being stranded in the port. Afenhao Mining announced that its Phase I concentrator at Pratt Reef started feeding on October 29, and the first batch of concentrates is expected to be produced in the next few weeks. Indonesia's Energy Ministry approved Amman Mineral to export 480,000 dry tons of copper concentrates for six months [3]. 3.2.3 Smelting and Import - Glencore plans to close its Horne copper smelter in Quebec, Canada, due to environmental issues and the need for millions of dollars in facility upgrades. The annual copper production of this smelter is expected to exceed 300,000 tons, which will intensify the global copper shortage expectation [4]. 3.2.4 Consumption - Yingtan City has transformed its investment - promotion concept, driving the high - quality development of the copper - based new materials industrial cluster. The revenue of local copper enterprises accounts for 15% of the national industry, and the copper product output ranks first in the country. AI data centers have extremely high power demand, and China plans to build 1,000 large - scale AI data centers in the next five years [4]. 3.2.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,025 tons to 133,900 tons compared to the previous day. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,081 tons to 41,147 tons. On November 3, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 200,100 tons, a change of 17,500 tons from the previous week [5][6]. 3.3 Copper Price and Basis Data | Project | 2025 - 11 - 05 | 2025 - 11 - 04 | 2025 - 10 - 29 | 2025 - 10 - 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM: 1 copper (spot, premium/discount) | 0 | - 5 | - 55 | 15 | | Premium copper | 60 | 60 | - 5 | 70 | | Flat - water copper | - 45 | - 30 | - 85 | - 30 | | Wet - process copper | - 90 | - 100 | - 145 | - 80 | | Yangshan premium | 51 | 51 | 53 | 54 | | LME (0 - 3) | - 26 | - 14 | - 24 | - 25 | | LME inventory | 133,900 | 133,600 | 134,575 | 139,550 | | SHFE inventory | 116,140 | - | 104,792 | - | | COMEX inventory | 325,213 | 322,649 | 315,465 | 296,716 | | SHFE warehouse receipts | 41,147 | 40,066 | 35,846 | 26,823 | | LME cancelled warehouse receipt ratio | 8.33% | 9.95% | 7.34% | 5.68% | | CU2602 - CU2511 (continuous three - month - near - month) | 50 | 70 | - 30 | - 300 | | CU2512 - CU2511 (main - near - month) | 40 | 40 | - 10 | - 240 | | CU2512/AL25 | 3.99 | 4.04 | 4.11 | 4.02 | | CU251/ZN25 | 3.78 | 3.87 | 3.90 | 3.81 | | Import profit | - 685 | - 872 | - 765 | - 528 | | SHFE - LME ratio (main contract) | 8.05 | 8.07 | 7.89 | 8.07 | [24][25][28]