黑色建材日报-20251105

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak yesterday, with the prices of finished steel products showing a weak and fluctuating trend. Although the demand for steel products is currently in the off - season, with the implementation of the Fed's easing policy and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve, and the demand for steel products may gradually recover in the future [2]. - For the black sector, the report maintains a non - pessimistic view. It believes that finding callback positions to do long may have a higher cost - performance ratio than shorting. The macro factors are more important for price determination than the weak fundamentals [10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply pressure persists, and the demand support is weakening. It is likely to follow the overall commodity environment and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [13]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally due to production reduction, but the short - term inventory reduction is expected to be limited. Pay attention to the progress of platform companies [16]. - For glass, the market has expectations for supply structure improvement, but the current fundamentals are still weak, and the sustainability of the market needs to be observed [19]. - For soda ash, the industry is operating at a high rate, the losses of enterprises are expanding, and the demand is mainly for rigid restocking. The price is expected to continue the weak and fluctuating pattern in the short term [21] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel 行情资讯 - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3044 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton (-1.13%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1798 tons to 121,242 tons, and the open interest increased by 47,527 lots to 1,966,544 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3190 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3210 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3265 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-0.91%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 1764 tons to 100,301 tons, and the open interest decreased by 26,705 lots to 1,396,130 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3290 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1] 策略观点 - The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils is in different situations. Rebar shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, and inventory is continuously decreasing. The demand for hot - rolled coils is rising, but the output is still high, and the inventory level is also high. The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and there is still a risk of inventory accumulation for hot - rolled coils. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm [2] Iron Ore 行情资讯 - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 775.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.89% (-7.00). The open interest increased by 12,824 lots to 547,800 lots, and the weighted open interest was 945,200 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.73 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.70% [4] 策略观点 - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume in the latest period decreased month - on - month but was still at a high level in the same period. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output decreased, the number of blast furnace overhauls was much larger than that of restarts, and the steel mill profitability rate reached a new low this year. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory decreased. Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and there is a risk of a phased decline in ore prices [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon 行情资讯 - On November 4, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.69% at 5754 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a converted price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium of 136 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed down 0.29% at 5510 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the futures price [7][8] 策略观点 - The two major macro - events at the end of October did not provide a driving force for the market to increase the valuation of commodities. The black sector's rebound has undergone a phased adjustment. The steel mill profitability rate continued to decline this week, and the pig iron output continued to decline. However, the apparent demand for the five major steel products was better than expected and drove the inventory to continue to decrease. The report is not pessimistic about the future of the black sector and believes that looking for callback positions to do long may be more cost - effective. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's market [9][10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 行情资讯 - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2601) was 8885 yuan/ton, with a change of -2.79% (-255). The weighted contract open interest increased by 11,685 lots to 411,459 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated industrial silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract was 415 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract was 15 yuan/ton after conversion [12] - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2601) was 53715 yuan/ton, with a change of -4.19% (-2350). The weighted contract open interest decreased by 20,330 lots to 237,756 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type recycled material was 52.2 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract was -1515 yuan/ton [15] 策略观点 - Industrial silicon: The supply pressure persists. Although the production in the southwest region is decreasing due to the dry season, the output in the northwest region is rising, and the weekly output has not yet reached its peak. The demand support is weakening. The price is likely to follow the overall commodity environment and is expected to be weak in the short term. Pay attention to the option game near the expiration [13][14] - Polysilicon: Some production capacity will be overhauled, and the production schedule in November will drop to 120,000 tons. The downstream silicon wafer operating rate is expected to decline slightly. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term inventory reduction is expected to be limited. The market has strong expectations and games for the results of industry meetings. Pay attention to the progress of platform companies [16] Glass and Soda Ash 行情资讯 - Glass: The main contract of glass closed at 1105 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 1.10% (+12). The price of large - sized glass in North China was 1130 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1120 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 65.79 million boxes, down 823,000 boxes (-1.24%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 29,982 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 85,117 lots [18] - Soda ash: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1189 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 1.08% (-13). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1149 yuan, down 13 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.702 million tons, down 0.01 million tons (-1.24%), including 886,400 tons of heavy soda ash inventory, down 48,100 tons, and 815,600 tons of light soda ash inventory, up 48,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 21,494 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 37,068 lots [20] 策略观点 - Glass: Driven by the cold - repair plan of production lines in Shahe and the "anti - involution" policy, the market's expectation of supply structure improvement has increased, and the capital sentiment has become more active. However, the current fundamentals are still weak, restricting the upward space of prices. The short - term impact of macro policies and production reduction events will continue, but the sustainability of the market needs to be observed based on spot transactions and inventory reduction [19] - Soda ash: The industry operating rate remains high, the losses of enterprises continue to expand, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid restocking, resulting in weak inventory reduction. Some manufacturers adjust prices flexibly to promote sales. Without obvious positive driving factors, the price is expected to continue the weak and fluctuating pattern in the short term [21]