金融期货早班车-20251105

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, recommend buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2] - For bond futures, be short - term bullish as the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 is cost - effective; for the medium - to - long - term, with rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, suggest hedging T and TL contracts on rallies [2] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On November 4, the four major A - share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.41% to 3960.19 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.71% to 13175.22 points, the ChiNext Index declined 1.96% to 3134.09 points, and the STAR 50 Index decreased 0.97% to 1387.24 points. Market turnover was 19,384 billion yuan, 1,945 billion yuan less than the previous day [1] - In terms of industry sectors, banks (+2.03%), public utilities (+0.24%), and environmental protection (+0.15%) led the gains; non - ferrous metals (-3.04%), power equipment (-2.05%), and pharmaceutical biology (-1.97%) led the losses [1] - In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IM > IC, and the number of rising, flat, and falling stocks were 1,627, 165, and 3,646 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had net inflows of - 375, - 200, 175, and 400 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 287, - 67, +145, and +209 billion yuan respectively [1] - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 151.33, 116.23, 29.7, and 4.77 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 14.96%, - 11.85%, - 4.73%, and - 1.16% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 15%, 14%, 20%, and 34% respectively [1] (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On November 4, interest - rate bonds were basically flat. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.01%, TF fell 0.01%, T rose 0%, and TL rose 0.03% [2] - For the current active 2512 contract, the CTD bond of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of +1bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.038, and an IRR of 1.75%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year Treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a yield change of +0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.068, and an IRR of 2.01%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year Treasury bond futures was 250018.IB, with a yield change of +0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.061, and an IRR of 1.95%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 0.2bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.012, and an IRR of 1.36% [2] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 1,175 billion yuan and withdrew 4,753 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 3,578 billion yuan [2] (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that recently, except for the manufacturing sector, the prosperity of each sector is lower than the same period in previous years [9]