中国人民银行今日早评-20251105

Key Points by Commodity Gold - US government shutdown continues, but with Sino-US relations easing and the US potentially pausing tariff measures, risk aversion weakens. The rising US dollar index is negative for gold. Gold may experience high-level oscillations in the medium term. Monitor the impact of the US dollar index on gold [1] 纯碱 - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is stable at 1,269 yuan/ton. Weekly production is 757,600 tons, a 2.3% increase. Total inventory is 1.702 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 0.01%. The float glass industry has stable operation and decreasing inventory. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with some plant shutdowns reducing supply. The 01 contract of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 1,200. It is recommended to wait and see or consider short - term long positions on dips [1] Iron Ore - From October 27th to November 2nd, global iron ore shipments decreased by 174,500 tons to 3.2138 million tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased by 166,700 tons to 2.7592 million tons. Supply is becoming more abundant in the near - term, while demand is weakening due to production cuts in Tangshan. There is a possibility of production resumption this week. Port inventory is still increasing, and steel mills' inventory has decreased significantly, with a potential for accelerated restocking. Ore prices are expected to decline further, and a short - selling strategy can be considered [3] Rebar - On November 4th, domestic steel prices continued to fall. In November, more steel mills plan to conduct maintenance and production cuts, and environmental restrictions are in place in the north. As the market enters the off - season, supply and demand are both expected to weaken. Raw material prices are under pressure, and steel mills are on the verge of profitability. Steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4] Manganese Silico - The national average capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 43.28%, a 0.09% increase from last week. Daily output increased by 655 tons to 29,830 tons. The cost of manganese ore may have limited upward potential. Demand for manganese silico is expected to weaken as steel production may decline in the future. Supply is expected to remain high, and inventory pressure persists. The price of manganese silico may not have strong upward momentum in the short term [5] Palm Oil - Last week, the narrowing price gap between soybean oil and palm oil led to increased purchases of palm oil, resulting in a decrease in inventory. As of the end of the 44th week of 2025, domestic palm oil inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 555,000 tons. The market expects an increase in palm oil inventory in Malaysia in October, which is negative for palm oil prices. Palm oil is expected to remain weak in the short term [6] Rapeseed Meal - As of November 1st, the weekly operating rate of domestic rapeseed processing enterprises increased by 0.49 percentage points to 1.47%. Weekly rapeseed crushing volume increased by 2,000 tons to 6,000 tons. There is an expectation of zero processing volume this week. Supply shortages reduce the risk of price decline. It is recommended to take long positions at low prices and monitor Sino - Canadian trade policies [6] Live Pigs - On November 4th, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.2% to 18.02 yuan/kg. The high - priced pork has low acceptance from consumers, and the number of second - fattening pigs has decreased. As enterprises resume normal slaughter, pig prices are expected to decline slowly in the short term. The LH2601 contract of live pigs shows a weak technical pattern, and farmers can consider hedging according to their slaughter plans [7] Short - term Treasury Bonds - On November 5th, the central bank conducted a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month reverse repurchase operation, which is an equal - amount roll - over. The loose money supply is positive for short - term bonds. The bond market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the medium term, but trading is becoming more difficult [7] Silver - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 70.1%. The rising US dollar index due to positive Sino - US trade relations is putting pressure on precious metals. Silver is expected to oscillate in the short term and rise in the long term, with limited downward space [8] Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol production enterprises in Northwest China decreased by 8,500 tons to 23,900 tons. The market price in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2,082 yuan/ton. Production capacity utilization increased by 1.09 percentage points to 86.73%. Port inventory decreased slightly, while enterprise inventory increased. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with resistance at 2,145. It is recommended to wait for further stabilization [9] Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China's drawn polypropylene decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 6,536 yuan/ton. Capacity utilization increased by 0.61 percentage points to 78.62%. Commercial inventory decreased by 51,300 tons to 874,000 tons. Supply pressure has eased slightly, and downstream orders have improved slightly. The PP 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 6,570. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [10] Crude Oil - As of the week ending October 31, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 6.52 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. China and Russia agreed to cooperate in the standardization of the oil and gas industry. Crude oil prices are expected to remain under pressure for the rest of the year and may ease slightly in the first quarter of next year [11] PX - This week, domestic PTA production increased by 44,800 tons to 1.4503 million tons. Capacity utilization increased by 2.40 percentage points to 78.38%. Social inventory decreased by 5,700 tons to 3.1356 million tons. The restart of previously shut - down PTA plants has increased supply, and the market is expected to have a slight inventory build - up. PX prices are under pressure, and the overall fundamentals of PTA are weak [11] Rubber - In Thailand, cup - lump prices decreased, while latex prices increased. From January to September, global natural rubber production increased by 2.3%, while consumption decreased by 1.5%. Indonesia's exports to China increased significantly. China's rubber inventory is at a low level, and raw material prices are expected to be firm. However, tire enterprises are facing shipment pressure, and some plan to reduce production in November. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with limited downward space [12]