国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20251105

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: Suppressed by inventory accumulation at the smelting end and supported by uncertainties at the ore end [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Steel prices fluctuate narrowly at a low level [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Weakly fluctuating due to the expectation of复产 and the off - season [2][7] - Industrial Silicon: With continuous reduction of warehouse receipts, it has strong bottom support [2][10] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to this week's information [2][10] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 119,700 yuan, down 1,250 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,545 yuan, down 85 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 122,871 lots, an increase of 25,519 lots from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless steel main contract was 192,167 lots, an increase of 26,276 lots from T - 1 [4] - Industrial Chain Data: The price of 1 imported nickel was 120,950 yuan, down 200 yuan from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 922 yuan, down 1 yuan from T - 1 [4] Macro and Industry News - The Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT WedaBav Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect the nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [4] - China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [4] - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies [5] - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order regarding the RKAB approval process [6] - Trump claimed to impose an additional 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on "all key software" [6] Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [6] Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 77,160 yuan, down 3,460 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 428 lots, a decrease of 550 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 5,505 lots, a decrease of 275 lots from T - 1 [7] - Industrial Chain Data: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,900 yuan, down 100 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 78,700 yuan, down 100 yuan from T - 1 [7] Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 80,903 yuan/ton, down 136 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [8] - Samsung SDI will reach a large - scale energy - storage battery supply agreement with Tesla, supplying about 10 GWh per year for 3 years [9] Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [9] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of the Si2601 contract was 8,885 yuan/ton, down 255 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 379,786 lots, an increase of 152,978 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 242,153 lots, an increase of 13,885 lots from T - 1 [10] - Industrial Chain Data: The price of industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.8 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from T - 5; the price of polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock was 52,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from T - 1 [10] Macro and Industry News - On November 3, Xinnuo Photoelectric officially released the world's largest - sized perovskite photovoltaic commercial module [10] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 1; Polysilicon trend intensity: 0 [12]