沪铜日评：美元指数走强压制铜价-20251105

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The Sino-US reached a one-year economic and trade agreement, and there are production disturbances in multiple overseas copper mines. However, due to the Fed's more hawkish stance on interest rate cuts, the strengthening of the US dollar index and the tightening of liquidity may lead to an adjustment in the price of Shanghai copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Shanghai Copper: On November 4, 2025, the closing price was 85,740, a decrease of 1,560 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 166,742 lots, an increase of 16,145 lots. The open interest was 227,549 lots, a decrease of 21,213 lots. The inventory was 41,147 tons, an increase of 1,081 tons [2]. - LME Copper: On November 4, 2025, the 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,649, a decrease of 170 compared to the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was -30.45, a decrease of 4.75 [2]. - COMEX Copper: On November 4, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.9255, a decrease of 0.19 [2]. Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis - Supply: There are production disturbances in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, resulting in a continuous negative import index of copper concentrates in China, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month [2]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, copper wires and cables, and copper enameled wires have decreased compared to last week, while the capacity utilization rates of recycled copper rods, copper strips, and copper tubes have increased [2]. - Inventory: The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has increased compared to last week. The inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange has decreased compared to last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared to last week [2]. Trading Strategy - Short - term: Lightly short the main contract on rallies. Pay attention to the support level of 81,000 - 83,000 and the resistance level of 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper. For LME copper, the support level is around 10,200 - 10,500 and the resistance level is around 11,500 - 12,000. For US copper, the support level is around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance level is around 5.5 - 6.0 [2].