商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251105

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend analyses and trading suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, etc. For example, PX is expected to be in a high - level oscillatory market, while MEG is expected to trend weakly [2][11][12]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. PX, PTA, MEG - PX: The supply is overall tight, and the demand will remain high. The cost - end aromatic hydrocarbon blending oil demand supports the valuation. It is in a high - level oscillatory market, and one can consider shorting PXN on rallies [11]. - PTA: The cost support is weak, and the supply is in excess. It is in an oscillatory market, and one can short the processing fee on rallies [11]. - MEG: The supply pressure is large, and the price hits a new low. One can short the spread on rallies [12]. 2. Rubber - The upstream raw material support is insufficient, and the dark - colored rubber shows an inventory accumulation inflection point. The market is bearish, and the price center continues to move down. It is in an oscillatory and weakening trend [15][18]. 3. Synthetic Rubber - The cost collapses, and the processing profit expands. Under the background of a neutral fundamental pattern, the futures price reflects the expectation of profit contraction. It is in a weak operation [19][21]. 4. Asphalt - It follows the crude oil to oscillate. The factory and social inventories are decreasing. The trend intensity is neutral [22][30][33]. 5. LLDPE - The planned - out maintenance increases, and the short - term continuous decline driving force is not strong. The market is in an oscillatory situation. One needs to pay attention to the import pressure [34]. 6. PP - The market is overall weak. Although there are short - term rebound factors, the medium - term trend may be oscillatory and weak [38]. 7. Caustic Soda - The market has downward pressure. The high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, and one needs to pay attention to the supply changes under the background of low profit [43]. 8. Pulp - The supply - side pressure is significant, and the downstream demand is weak. It is in an oscillatory operation, and one needs to pay attention to the port inventory and downstream procurement demand [49][50]. 9. Glass - The original sheet price is stable, and the market trading atmosphere is relatively stable [52]. 10. Methanol - The supply is high, and the demand side has pressure. The macro - driving force weakens. It is in a weak operation, and one needs to pay attention to whether the port goods flowing back to the inland can support the price [57][58]. 11. Urea - The short - term spot trading improves, and the futures price oscillates in the short term [60][61]. 12. Styrene - The contradiction is not significant. Pure benzene has triple pressures, but the blending oil price difference opens. It is in a weakly oscillatory trend [63]. 13. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little, and it is expected to oscillate steadily in the short term [65]. 14. LPG and Propylene - LPG: The demand improvement is limited, and the disk valuation is high. - Propylene: The supply is expected to contract, and the loose pattern improves [67]. 15. PVC - The supply is expected to be sufficient, the demand is weak, and the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change. It is in a weak oscillatory trend [74]. 16. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: It declined at night and is weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The upward trend is interrupted, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market declines [77]. 17. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is waiting for the cabin - opening guidance. The market is affected by factors such as freight rates and shipping capacity [79].