FICC日报：美政府“停摆”追平记录，全球流动性承压-20251105

Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall neutral for commodities and stock index futures [5] Core Viewpoints - The US government shutdown has tied the record, putting pressure on global liquidity. The Fed's slow stop of QT and potential liquidity risks in November need attention. The domestic market has positive news, but the economic foundation needs to be strengthened. Commodities should be on the sidelines for now, with a focus on potential breakthroughs in the second half of inflation [2][3][4] Market Analysis - On October 28, the full text of the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal was released, with clear goals. The average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan may be around 5%. On October 30, the China-US economic and trade teams reached a three - point consensus. The October national manufacturing PMI was 49, with a month - on - month value of - 0.8. The central bank resumed open - market treasury bond trading in October. On November 4, the A - share market adjusted, with the ChiNext Index down nearly 2% [2] Fed and US Economic Situation - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1. The short - term funding shortage persists, with the spread between the general collateral rate and the reserve balance rate reaching 0.32%. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December is 67.8%. The US government shutdown continues, and the October ISM manufacturing index fell to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months. The dollar index broke through 100 on November 4 [3] Commodity Analysis - Commodities should be on the sidelines. The black sector is dragged by downstream demand expectations. The non - ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations. The energy sector's medium - term supply is considered relatively loose, with OPEC+ increasing production. The chemical sector's "anti - involution" space for some varieties is worthy of attention. For agricultural products, focus on China's procurement plan and weather expectations. Precious metals may enter a consolidation phase [4] Key News - The central bank's net open - market treasury bond trading in October was 200 billion yuan, MLF net investment was 200 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase net investment was 400 billion yuan. The market adjusted on November 4, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline. The US government shutdown entered the 35th day. The dollar index broke through 100. Iraq's prime minister ordered a halt to gasoline, diesel, and kerosene imports [6]