格林大华期货早盘提示：焦煤、焦炭-20251105

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coking coal and coke in the black sector is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [1] Report's Core View - The third round of price increase for coke has been recognized by the mainstream market due to the continuous rise in coking coal spot prices. However, as the downstream demand of steel mills enters the off - season and the molten iron output is expected to decline, the supply shortage in the coking coal spot market is expected to ease. The near - month contracts of coking coal and coke are seeing long - position reductions and price drops, while the far - month contracts are seeing short - position increases and price drops. In the short term, coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate weakly [1] Summary by Related Contents Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2601 closed at 1253.0, down 2.45% compared to the opening of the day session; the main coke contract J2601 closed at 1729.0, down 2.40% compared to the opening of the day session. In the night session yesterday, Jm2601 closed at 1259.0, up 0.48% compared to the day - session close; the J2601 contract closed at 1734.0, up 0.29% compared to the day - session close [1] Important News - The central bank announced that on November 5th, it conducted 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a term of 3 months (91 days) to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [1] - On November 4th, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin regions raised the coke procurement price for the third time, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on November 5th, 2025 [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange plans to adjust the delivery quality standards for coking coal and implement the new rules for newly listed contracts after the rule release. This adjustment includes modifying the scope and premium/discount of standard and substitute products for strength indicators, as well as the premium/discount for the substitute product scope of sulfur content indicators [1] Market Logic - The continuous rise in coking coal spot prices has led to cost - driven recognition of the third round of coke price increases in the mainstream market. Today's coking coal auction prices remain relatively strong. But with the downstream demand of steel mills entering the off - season and the expected decline in molten iron output, the supply shortage in the coking coal spot market is expected to ease. The near - month contracts of coking coal and coke are seeing long - position reductions and price drops, while the far - month contracts are seeing short - position increases and price drops [1] Trading Strategy - As coking coal prices start to decline significantly, coking coal and coke are considered bearish in the short term. Attention should be paid to the available inventory days of downstream coking and steel enterprises. After the end of environmental protection production restrictions, there may be a phased replenishment demand. Short positions this week can take profits at low prices to avoid the impact of supply - demand mismatches on the market caused by the concentrated resumption of production of steel mills next week [1]