工业硅、多晶硅日评：上方承压-20251105

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The silicon market has weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may put pressure on the upper limit of the market. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of RMB 9,300 - 9,500 per ton. [1] - Due to supply - side disturbances, the polysilicon market has risen again. Considering the limited willingness of downstream enterprises to replenish inventory, there is significant pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which will limit the upward space of the market. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price Changes: On November 5, 2025, the average price of non - oxygen - blown 553 (East China) remained unchanged at RMB 9,300 per ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) also remained unchanged at RMB 9,700 per ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 2.79% to RMB 8,885 per ton. [1] - Supply and Demand Situation: In October, the southwest production area entered the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped production at the end of October, and production significantly declined. In Yunnan, only integrated enterprises or those with long - term order demand were still in production. In the north, the number of open furnaces increased steadily. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the industrial silicon output in November is expected to fall below 400,000 tons. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - cut state, silicone enterprises were mostly in a state of reduced load or maintenance, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed. The overall willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low prices was limited. [1] - Investment Strategy: Adopt an interval - trading strategy. Continuously monitor industrial policy changes and the production dynamics of silicon enterprises. [1] Polysilicon - Price Changes: On November 5, 2025, the price of N - type dense material remained unchanged at RMB 51 per kilogram; the price of N - type re - feed material decreased by 0.10% to RMB 52.2 per kilogram; the price of N - type mixed material remained unchanged at RMB 50.5 per kilogram; the price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at RMB 50.5 per kilogram. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 4.19% to RMB 53,715 per ton. [1] - Supply and Demand Situation: On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - cut state, and some polysilicon plants might have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output in October is expected to increase slightly, and the output in November may decline. On the demand side, the polysilicon market transactions were relatively light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises were highly resistant to high - priced resources, and the market was waiting for industry policy guidance. [1] - Investment Strategy: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, investors can try to go long on dips with a light position. Continuously monitor the establishment of the polysilicon platform and the evolution of macro - sentiment. [1] Policy Information - The Hebei Provincial Development and Reform Commission and the North China Regulatory Bureau of the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Implementation Rules for the Development and Construction Management of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation in Hebei Province", which clearly stipulates the grid - connection management of distributed photovoltaics. For projects relying on public institutions, the self - consumption ratio of distributed photovoltaics should not be less than 30%, and for those relying on industrial and commercial factories, it should not be less than 50%. For projects with annual self - consumption electricity lower than the specified ratio, the part of the excess grid - connected electricity settlement will be deducted by the power grid enterprise in the following year, and the deducted electricity charges will be shared by all industrial and commercial users. [1] - The policy sets a transition period for existing projects. Projects that were filed before January 23, 2025, and connected to the grid before May 1, 2025, will still be implemented according to the original policy. For general industrial and commercial distributed projects that were filed before the release of the rules and connected to the grid before December 31, 2025, there is no requirement for the self - consumption electricity ratio. [1]