国新国证期货早报-20251105

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on November 4, 2025 - A-shares: The three major A-share indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.41% to 3960.19 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.71% to 13175.22 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 1.96% to 3134.09 points. The trading volume in the two markets was 1915.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 191.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Stock Index: The CSI 300 Index was weak, closing at 4618.70, down 34.70 [2]. 2. Futures Market 2.1 Energy and Chemicals - Coke and Coking Coal: On November 4, the weighted coke index returned to a weak trend, closing at 1759.2, down 41.2; the weighted coking coal index trended weakly, closing at 1268.3 yuan, down 32.8. The port coke spot market price was stable, while the coking enterprises' losses increased due to rising raw coal prices, and the supply was tight. The coal enterprise复产 was slower than expected, supporting the spot coal price [3][4][5]. - Palm Oil: The palm oil futures price hit a new low since July. The main contract P2601 closed at 8616, down 0.55%. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in October reached a two - year high, with an expected increase of 3.5% to 2.44 million tons [7]. - Asphalt: The asphalt 2601 main contract closed down 2% at 3193 yuan. The capacity utilization rate increased slightly, inventory decreased, but demand was slow to release, and the price followed the cost of crude oil [13]. 2.2 Agricultural Products - Sugar: Affected by the previous day's reaction and spot price cuts, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract declined. As of the end of October 2025, Yunnan's cumulative sugar sales were 2.3115 million tons, with a sales rate of 95.57%, and the industrial inventory was 107,200 tons [5]. - Rubber: Due to increased raw material supply in Southeast Asia and lower spot prices, as well as a decline in heavy - truck sales in October, the Shanghai rubber futures price fell [6][7]. - Soybean Meal: Internationally, the CBOT soybean futures price fell on November 4. StoneX lowered the US 2025 soybean yield forecast. Domestically, the M2601 main contract closed at 3015 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The supply of imported soybeans was abundant, and the inventory of soybean meal increased [8]. - Pork: The LH2601 main contract closed at 11685 yuan/ton, down 0.43%. The supply of pigs in the fourth quarter was sufficient, and the short - term support for pig prices weakened. Attention should be paid to factors such as the reduction of breeding sows and terminal consumption [9]. 2.3 Metals - Copper: The Shanghai copper main contract (2512) closed at 85740 yuan/ton, down 1.54%. The short - term demand was insufficient, and attention should be paid to the macro - policy and inventory changes [10]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore 2601 main contract fell 1.71% to 775.5 yuan. The shipping volume decreased, the arrival volume in China reached a new high, and the iron - making output decreased [13]. - Aluminum: The al2512 contract closed at 21465 yuan/ton. Overseas supply was expected to tighten, and domestic prices were supported by environmental protection restrictions and inventory decline. The demand in emerging fields was strong [15]. - Alumina: The ao2601 contract closed at 2770 yuan/ton. The supply of domestic bauxite was tight, but the market was resistant to high - priced bauxite, and the long - term contract price of bauxite decreased in the fourth quarter [14]. 2.4 Others - Log: The 2601 log contract opened at 785, closed at 776.5, and increased in positions by 773 lots. The spot price in Shandong decreased, and the market was gradually destocking [11][13]. - Steel: The rb2601 contract closed at 3044 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract closed at 3265 yuan/ton. The supply and demand of steel were both weak, and the short - term price was expected to be weakly volatile [14]. - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13480 yuan/ton at night. The inventory increased by 76 lots, and the purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang decreased [13].