甲醇日报：港口价格延续回落，等待回流窗口进一步打开-20251105

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The port inventory remains high, and the arrival pressure in November is still significant. The overseas supply pressure is large as Iran has not announced winter inspections. Attention should be paid to the implementation progress of the December Fude maintenance plan and the opening of the window for methanol to flow back to the mainland as port prices fall [3] - The mainland inventory is continuously accumulating. Mainstream CTO enterprises have started to show purchasing intentions at low prices. The coal - based methanol start - up rate has further increased in November, and the mainland inventory has been rebuilt from a low level. The demand from mainland MTO has declined, but attention should be paid to the inventory preparation before the commissioning of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. The mainland is also in an inventory accumulation cycle, and the degree of support for the port remains to be observed [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - term structure, including methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) compared with the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import price differences such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [6][26][27] 3. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - The report includes figures on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated ones), mainland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol start - up rate (including integrated ones) [6][35][36] 4. Regional Price Differences - There are figures showing regional price differences, such as the price differences between Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [6][40][49] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures present the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profits of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [6][53][59]