新能源及有色金属日报：受矿端复产预期影响，多头平仓引发盘面大幅下跌-20251105

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View The sharp decline in the lithium carbonate futures market on November 4, 2025, was mainly affected by the expected resumption of production at the mining end of large factories, the inflection point of inventory and consumption in the first - quarter off - season, and the weak overall commodity sentiment. Although the recent inventory has been continuously depleted, providing some support to the market, the upstream hedging willingness is strong at 82,000 yuan/ton, while the downstream procurement willingness decreases. The follow - up focus should be on the consumption and inventory inflection points. If consumption weakens and mining production resumes, inventory may shift from depletion to accumulation, and the market may experience a significant correction [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 4, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 opened at 82,700 yuan/ton and closed at 78,560 yuan/ton, with a - 4.34% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 975,978 lots, and the open interest was 457,374 lots, compared with 525,184 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was 1,040 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased by 800 lots to 26,490 lots compared with the previous trading day [1]. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was reported at 79,400 - 82,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was reported at 78,100 - 79,300 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 945 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars/ton from the previous day. When the futures price dropped below 80,000 yuan/ton, some post - pricing transactions were closed [1]. - In terms of supply, the overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remained high, with the operating rates of spodumene and salt lake ends both above 60%, becoming the main supply sources. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November can maintain the production level of October, with a roughly flat month - on - month change. In terms of demand, the power market of new energy vehicles in both commercial and passenger segments is growing rapidly; the energy storage market has strong supply and demand, and the supply remains tight [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the inventory and consumption inflection points and choose the opportunity to sell for hedging at high prices [2]. - Cross - period: None [3]. - Cross - variety: None [3]. - Spot - futures: None [3]. - Options: None [3].