贵金属日报：美政府停摆时长追平历史记录，贵金属延续弱势震荡-20251105

Report Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - The U.S. government shutdown has tied the historical record, and the precious metals market continues to oscillate weakly. With the fading of market risk aversion, the demand for gold investment may slightly decline. The gold price is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern, and the silver price is also showing an oscillatory situation. The Fed's interest rate cut path has widened in December, and short-term risk aversion catalysts have weakened [1][8]. Market Analysis - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered the 35th day, tying the longest shutdown record in U.S. history. The Democrats and Republicans have been deadlocked, and the Senate has failed to pass a temporary appropriation bill in 13 votes. The U.S. Supreme Court will hear the case of whether Trump's tariff policy is legal this Wednesday, and the U.S. Treasury Secretary will go to the Supreme Court to emphasize the importance of tariffs [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On November 4, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 921.90 yuan/gram and closed at 915.58 yuan/gram, a change of -0.76% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 908.92 yuan/gram, down 0.73% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,455.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,238.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -1.89% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 783,853 lots, and the open interest was 257,090 lots. The night session closed at 11,226 yuan/kilogram, down 0.11% from the afternoon close [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 4, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.081%, a decrease of 2.91 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.511%, a change of +0.58 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On November 4, 2025, on the Au2512 contract, the long position decreased by 5,262 lots compared to the previous day, and the short position decreased by 2,315 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 332,993 lots, a change of -2.42% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2512 contract, the long position decreased by 2,987 lots, and the short position decreased by 365 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 783,853 lots, a change of 4.23% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,041.78 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,190 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 4, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 4.18 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -825.36 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 81.47, a change of 1.16% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 81.88, a change of -0.93% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On November 4, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 64,372 kilograms, a change of -4.71% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 659,480 kilograms, a change of 25.52% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 28,080 kilograms [7]. Strategy - Gold: The price is expected to oscillate, and the Au2512 contract's oscillation range may be between 890 yuan/gram and 940 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The price is oscillating, and the Ag2512 contract's oscillation range may be between 11,000 yuan/kilogram and 11,600 yuan/kilogram [8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8].