Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of the new - season corn market remains loose. Although the low port inventory supports prices to some extent, downstream demand is still weak. The improvement in deep - processing profitability has not significantly boosted demand, and feed consumption is mainly rigid. Despite the decrease in imported grains, wheat substitution has effectively filled the supply gap. However, as the wheat price approaches the policy bottom and the new corn harvest ends, the substitution effect of wheat is expected to weaken, and some demand may return to corn. The market is in a critical game period with both bullish and bearish factors. In the short term, the downward trend of corn has not ended, and it may continue to test the support level of 2,100 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the rhythm of new grain listing. If the current decline fully releases in time and space, the driving logic of the market may change in the future. It is recommended to closely monitor the progress of new grain listing and the recovery of downstream demand [6][34][37]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Corn Market Structure - As of the end of October, the corn index price continued to decline to around the previous low of 2,129 yuan/ton. After breaking this support level in mid - October, it rebounded to around 2,170 yuan/ton and then started a new downward trend. It is expected to continue to decline and may even experience an over - decline, falling below 2,100 yuan/ton. Recently, the supply of corn in North China has increased, but due to the high - opening and low - going price under the expectation of a bumper harvest, the price remains low. Meanwhile, the state reserve and central grain reserve are continuously rotating out grain sources, and imported substitute resources are continuously arriving at ports, increasing the market supply. The domestic downstream corn - using enterprises have sufficient inventories, and the low breeding profit and wheat substitution have suppressed the replenishment demand of feed enterprises for corn, resulting in relatively light market trading. Overall, the corn index may continue to decline [8]. - The overall futures - spot structure shows a Contango structure, with the 01 contract at a discount to the 05 contract, and the 05 contract at a discount to the 09 contract [9]. 3.2 Market行情 Analysis - Supply - side factors: - Supply - demand balance and cost: The new - season corn market shows "slightly increasing supply and stable rigid demand". Based on a survey in October 2025, the national corn output is expected to be 282 million tons, an increase of 11.13 million tons compared to 2024. The supply is abundant due to factors such as the continuous rotation of state - owned grain reserves and the arrival of imported substitute resources. The planting cost in Northeast China has decreased, and the estimated port collection price is about 2,000 yuan/ton, indicating that there is still room for the corn futures price to fall [11][13]. - Import volume: In September 2025, the import volume of major grains decreased significantly year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import of corn was 930,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72%. The decrease in imports reflects the compression of import demand due to domestic inventory, consumption, and policy regulation [15]. - Wheat substitution: In 2025, the wheat output increased by about 4% month - on - month, and the wheat market supply - demand pattern is loose, with prices under pressure. Wheat has a significant price advantage over corn, and it is expected that the substitution of wheat for corn in the feed sector will be between 20 million and 30 million tons in 2025. As the wheat price bottoms out and the corn price continues to fall, the substitution effect of wheat is expected to decrease, and the diverted demand may return to the corn market [22]. - Demand - side factors: - Feed and breeding: In the feed and breeding sector, the policy has been promoting the reduction of the inventory of reproductive sows since July. However, as of September 2025, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million, and the inventory of reproductive sows was still as high as 40.35 million. The pig price has fallen below the breeding cost, and the industry is expected to further reduce production capacity. Currently, the feed consumption of corn is mainly rigid, with limited short - term growth potential [24][25]. - Deep - processing: Deep - processing enterprises in the north and south have generally turned profitable after the significant price decline of new - season corn. For example, the deep - processing starch profit in Heilongjiang is about 50 yuan/ton, and 44 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [26]. - Inventory: As of October 31, the corn inventories at northern and southern ports have dropped to medium - low levels in recent years. The northern port inventory, as a distribution center for Northeast grain, has decreased, possibly due to the depletion of grassroots grain reserves and the reluctance of traders to sell. The southern port inventory, as an indicator of demand in the sales area, has also decreased, reflecting less grain arrival and stable提货 by downstream enterprises. The overall decline in port inventory weakens the buffer effect of the market, making prices more sensitive to supply and demand changes [33]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The overall supply of the new - season corn market remains loose. Although the low port inventory supports prices, downstream demand is weak. The wheat substitution effect is expected to weaken, and the market is in a critical game period. In the short term, the downward trend of corn may continue to test the 2,100 yuan/ton support level. Pay attention to the new grain listing rhythm. If the decline fully releases, the market driving logic may change in the future. It is recommended to closely monitor the progress of new grain listing and the recovery of downstream demand [6][34][37].
玉米期货月报-20251105
An Liang Qi Huo·2025-11-05 03:03