Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - In October, the polyethylene market was characterized by ample supply, weak demand, and price pressure, with the supply-demand relationship dominating the overall trend. In November, the supply is expected to increase, the demand may have marginal improvement but the increase is limited, high inventory remains a core constraint, and the market is likely to continue its weak and volatile trend [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - In October, the total domestic polyethylene supply increased, with production rising both year-on-year and month-on-month, and different varieties showing growth. Maintenance losses decreased but with variety differentiation, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly while the regional rates generally declined. New capacity plans and the resumption of previously shut-down plants in November will further increase supply pressure [7][8][5]. - In terms of inventory, at the end of October, there was a differentiated pattern of decreasing production enterprise inventory and slightly increasing social inventory. High inventory is a key factor suppressing the market, and if demand improvement falls short of expectations, inventory accumulation pressure may persist [12][13][5]. - In October, the import prices of polyethylene decreased across the board, the overall import volume rebounded but with different performances among varieties, and the import profits of different varieties showed differentiation [15][16][17]. Demand Side - In October, the overall downstream operating rate of polyethylene increased slightly, with differentiated performance in different sectors. The demand for agricultural films increased significantly while that for packaging films declined slightly. The overall demand was weak, and enterprises mainly made rigid purchases. In November, there is room for marginal improvement in demand, but the growth may be limited due to macro - economic uncertainties [4][5][18]. Cost and Profit - In October, the cost of oil - based polyethylene production decreased, and the loss narrowed; the cost of coal - based production increased, and the profit margin was compressed. The profit of oil - based enterprises was still in the loss range but the loss decreased, while the profit of coal - based enterprises decreased significantly [4][22][26]. - In October, the price differences between polyethylene and related varieties showed a differentiated trend. The average price difference between PE - PVC:01 contract narrowed, while that between PE - PP:01 contract widened [27]. Summary - In October, the polyethylene market was characterized by ample supply, weak demand, and price pressure. In November, the supply pressure will increase, the demand may improve marginally, high inventory will continue to suppress the market, and the cost support is weak. The market is likely to continue its weak and volatile trend [4][5][29].
塑料期货月报-20251105
An Liang Qi Huo·2025-11-05 03:03