农产品日报：基本面驱动仍然向下，原糖期价再度收低-20251105

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton: In the short - term, the upside of cotton prices is limited due to factors such as potential entry of hedging positions after price increases, weak downstream demand, and concentrated new cotton listing. In the long - term, considering low initial inventory and consumption resilience, cotton prices are expected to be positive after the seasonal pressure eases [2][3] - Sugar: The global sugar market in the 25/26 season may be in a bear cycle with an oversupply pattern, limiting the rebound of raw sugar. For domestic sugar, there is an expectation of increased production in the new season, and the price is near the cost line. It is expected to fluctuate by the end of the year, and there may be new lows next year [5][6] - Pulp: The supply of pulp remains loose with high port inventories, and demand is weak both globally and domestically. The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter should be noted [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,535 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,640 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,841 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. As of October 31, 2025/26 in Pakistan, the cumulative listed volume of new - season seed cotton in terms of lint was about 688,000 tons, an increase of 3.4% year - on - year [2] Market Analysis - Internationally, Sino - US negotiations have made progress, but the amount of US cotton that China will purchase is unclear. The release of key data is delayed, and there is a short - term supply pressure due to the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere. Domestically, the new - season cotton market starts with low inventory, and the supply is supplemented by new cotton. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized and rebounded, but there are factors such as potential hedging positions and weak downstream demand [2] Strategy - In the short - term, there is a possibility of a callback. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to be positive after the seasonal pressure eases [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5481 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.33%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5680 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. Conab estimated that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season would be 4.134 million tons, higher than the previous forecast [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar prices are under pressure from oversupply. Although the sugar - making ratio in Brazil has declined in the short - term, the global sugar market in the 25/26 season may be in a bear cycle [5] Strategy - The downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited by factors such as cost and policies. It is expected to fluctuate by the end of the year, and there may be new lows next year [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract was 5288 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.34%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5045 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The import pulp spot market prices were mostly stable with some fluctuations [7] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' production reduction and price increase plans have limited impact on the overall supply pattern, and domestic port inventories remain high. Demand: Consumption in Europe and the United States is weak, and domestic demand is the core factor suppressing prices. Even in the peak season, downstream paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [7] Strategy - The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [8]