宏观预期出现反复，基本金属承压回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions continue to support base metal prices, but macro - support has weakened. Base metals may rise first and then fall. One can cautiously focus on the opportunity for aluminum ingot price to catch up, and also consider low - buying opportunities for copper after price decline. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so the supply - demand situation is expected to tighten, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. - The copper price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term; the alumina price is under pressure and oscillating; the aluminum price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and may see its price center rise in the medium term; the aluminum alloy price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and oscillating in the medium term; the zinc price is expected to be oscillating; the lead price is expected to be volatile and bullish; the nickel price is expected to be oscillating; the stainless - steel price is expected to be range - bound; the tin price is expected to be volatile and bullish [9][13][14][16][18][21][23][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information Analysis: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October. The SMM China electrolytic copper production in September decreased by 5.05 tons month - on - month, a 4.31% decline. The spot copper price showed a certain change on November 4, and the copper inventory increased. The China - US presidents met in late October, agreeing to strengthen cooperation [8]. - Main Logic: The Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's hawkish remarks led to a short - term adjustment in copper prices. The supply of copper ore is tightening, and the production of electrolytic copper may decline. The high price restricts demand, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [9]. - Outlook: The copper price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term [9]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information Analysis: On November 4, the alumina spot price in the north remained flat, while the national weighted index declined slightly. The alumina warehouse receipts increased [9]. - Main Logic: The high - cost production capacity has fluctuations, and the supply contraction is not obvious. The domestic market is in a strong inventory - accumulation trend. The price is under pressure, but more funds are starting to pay attention to it [9][10]. - Outlook: The alumina price is expected to be under pressure and oscillating [9]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information Analysis: On November 4, the SMM AOO aluminum price remained unchanged. The aluminum rod and electrolytic aluminum ingot inventories showed certain changes. A new project will be put into production, and some regions have implemented environmental protection policies. Some aluminum has been transported to the US, and a large proportion of LME aluminum warehouse receipts are held [11][12]. - Main Logic: The macro - environment is positive. The domestic supply is at a high level with some environmental protection restrictions, and the overseas supply has disruptions. The demand is stable, and attention should be paid to demand and inventory trends [13]. - Outlook: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and may see its price center rise in the medium term [13]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Information Analysis: On November 4, the price of ADC12 decreased. The estimated retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in October decreased slightly [14]. - Main Logic: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing cost support. The supply side has some production - reduction risks, and the demand is marginally improving. Attention should be paid to the purchase - tax policy [14]. - Outlook: The aluminum alloy price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and oscillating in the medium term [14]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Information Analysis: The spot zinc price showed a certain discount on November 4. The zinc inventory increased slightly. A mine in Australia had production problems [15]. - Main Logic: The macro - environment is positive. The short - term supply of zinc ore is loose, and the refinery's profit is good. The demand is in the off - season. The zinc price may be in high - level oscillation in the short term and may decline in the long term [16]. - Outlook: The zinc price is expected to be oscillating [16]. 3.1.6 Lead - Information Analysis: On November 4, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the lead price increased slightly. The lead inventory increased slightly, and some enterprises had production changes [17]. - Main Logic: The spot premium increased slightly, the supply side has a complex situation, and the demand side is in the peak season. The lead price is expected to be volatile and bullish [18]. - Outlook: The lead price is expected to be volatile and bullish [18]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Information Analysis: On November 4, the LME nickel inventory remained unchanged, and the domestic nickel warehouse receipts decreased. The global visible inventory is increasing. Some companies have project progress [19][20]. - Main Logic: Market sentiment dominates the market. The supply of nickel ore is relatively loose, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be oscillating [21]. - Outlook: The nickel price is expected to be oscillating [21]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - Information Analysis: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price showed a certain premium. The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased [22]. - Main Logic: The prices of nickel iron and chromium have declined, weakening cost support. The production has increased, but demand acceptance is limited. The inventory may accumulate [22]. - Outlook: The stainless - steel price is expected to be range - bound [23]. 3.1.9 Tin - Information Analysis: On November 4, the LME and Shanghai tin warehouse receipts increased, and the Shanghai tin position decreased. The spot tin price remained unchanged [24][25]. - Main Logic: The supply of tin is restricted, but the inventory is starting to accumulate, which limits the price increase. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [25]. - Outlook: The tin price is expected to be volatile and bullish [25]. 3.2行情监测 No specific content for analysis in the provided text. 3.3 Market Indexes - On November 4, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities: the commodity index was 2229.67, down 0.92%; the commodity 20 index was 2521.83, down 0.98%; the industrial products index was 2213.57, down 1.07%. The non - ferrous metals index on November 4, 2025, had a daily decline of 1.11%, a 5 - day decline of 1.91%, a 1 - month increase of 2.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.86% [149][151].