江西复产预期再起，碳酸锂领跌新能源金属

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, supply expectations are fluctuating and driving the market. Lithium carbonate is leading the decline in new energy metals. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to contract, especially for polysilicon, which may lead to a higher price center. The production capacity of lithium ore is still rising, and the high - growth supply of lithium carbonate will limit the upside of lithium prices [1]. - The market sentiment for industrial silicon is fluctuating, causing the silicon price to decline. The sentiment for polysilicon has cooled, and it is oscillating at a high level. The lithium carbonate price has fallen due to sentiment, but the supply - demand situation remains strong [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Viewpoint: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the silicon price has declined. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [5]. - Information Analysis: - The spot prices of oxygen - passing 553 and 421 industrial silicon in East China are 9450 yuan/ton and 9700 yuan/ton respectively, with minor fluctuations [5]. - The latest domestic inventory is 447,700 tons, a 0.6% increase month - on - month. Market inventory is 183,000 tons, unchanged month - on - month, and factory inventory is 264,700 tons, a 1.0% increase month - on - month [5]. - As of October 2025, the monthly production of domestic industrial silicon was 452,000 tons, a 7.5% increase month - on - month and a 3.8% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to October was 3.469 million tons, a 16.7% decrease year - on - year [5]. - In September, the export of industrial silicon was 70,233 tons, an 8.4% decrease month - on - month and a 7.7% increase year - on - year. The cumulative export from January to September 2025 was 561,000 tons, a 2.3% increase year - on - year [5]. - The new photovoltaic installation in September was 9.66GW, a 53.76% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative new photovoltaic installation from January to September reached 240.27GW, a 49.35% increase year - on - year [5]. - Main Logic: The supply in the southwest is expected to decrease as the dry season approaches, while the supply in the northwest is stable with potential for further production resumption. The overall supply of domestic industrial silicon remains relatively loose. The demand from the polysilicon industry in the southwest is expected to decline slightly in November, the organic silicon DMC market is weak and stable, and the demand from the aluminum alloy industry has limited growth. The continuous reduction of industrial silicon warehouse receipts provides some support to the market [5]. - Outlook: Although the reduction in southwest production during the dry season and the rapid reduction of short - term warehouse receipts provide some support, there is still supply pressure in November. The silicon price is expected to oscillate [5]. Polysilicon - Viewpoint: Market sentiment has cooled, and polysilicon is oscillating at a high level. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [6]. - Information Analysis: - The成交 price range of N - type re -投料 is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [6]. - The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 9590 lots, unchanged from the previous value [6]. - In September, the export volume of polysilicon was about 2150 tons, a 53% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative export from January to September 2025 was 18,667 tons, a 30% year - on - year decrease. The import volume in September was about 1292 tons, a 49.46% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative import from January to September was 14,677 tons, a 53.26% year - on - year decrease [6]. - The new domestic photovoltaic installation from January to September 2025 was 240.27GW, a 49.35% increase year - on - year [6]. - Some polysilicon production bases in the southwest are gradually reducing raw material input and are expected to fully stop production from late October to early November, involving a production capacity of about 320,000 tons/year [7]. - Main Logic: The market risk appetite has cooled. The production of polysilicon has rebounded in August - September and is expected to remain high in October, but will contract in November with the arrival of the dry season. The demand for polysilicon in the fourth quarter may continue to weaken. Although the current supply - demand situation is under pressure, it is expected to improve during the dry season, and there are still policy expectations [7][8]. - Outlook: The anti - involution policy has a significant positive impact on the polysilicon price, but the inventory pressure is still large. The polysilicon price is expected to oscillate widely [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Viewpoint: The lithium carbonate price has fallen due to sentiment, but the supply - demand situation remains strong. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [8][9]. - Information Analysis: - On November 4, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 4.52% to 78,560 yuan/ton, and the total open interest decreased by 82,510 lots to 827,400 lots [8]. - On November 4, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 80,900 yuan/ton, the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 78,700 yuan/ton, and the average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) decreased by 3 US dollars/ton to 941 US dollars/ton. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 800 lots to 26,490 lots [9]. - According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in October were 1.61 million, a 16% year - on - year increase and a 7% month - on - month increase. The cumulative wholesale from January to October is estimated to be 12.054 million, a 30% year - on - year increase [9]. - Main Logic: The current supply - demand situation is strong, and the inventory is expected to continue to decrease in November. However, the supply expectations are fluctuating, causing significant price fluctuations. The production is expected to remain strong from November to December, with additional import expectations in November. The apparent demand is good, but attention should be paid to the production schedule in December and the potential weakening of demand in the first quarter of next year. The speculative demand may push up the price when it falls [9]. - Outlook: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [9][10]. 4. Market Indexes - Comprehensive Index (November 4, 2025): The commodity index is 2229.67, a 0.92% decrease; the commodity 20 index is 2521.83, a 0.98% decrease; the industrial product index is 2213.57, a 1.07% decrease [50]. - New Energy Commodity Index (November 4, 2025): The index value is 407.95, with a daily decrease of 3.96%, a 5 - day decrease of 3.84%, a monthly increase of 2.51%, and a year - to - date decrease of 1.08% [52].