中辉期货：螺纹钢早报-20251105

Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon) are rated as "Cautiously Bearish" [1] Core View of the Report - The overall situation of the steel and related raw material markets shows weak supply and demand in the off - season. There are various influencing factors such as production changes, inventory adjustments, and policy impacts, leading to a situation where prices of most varieties are expected to run within a range with short - term weakening trends [1][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Variety View: Rebar's weekly production and apparent demand increased month - on - month, inventory continued to decline, and it conforms to the off - season characteristics of weak supply and demand. Hot - rolled coil's apparent demand and production both rebounded, and inventory decreased slightly but remained higher than the same period in previous years. Iron - making water production decreased significantly, weakening the support for raw materials. The Sino - US meeting ended, and tariff easing measures were implemented [1][4] - Disk Operation Suggestion: For rebar, the upward and downward drivers are not strong, and it will run within a range in the medium term, and may face short - term weakening at the current position. For hot - rolled coil, it will also run within a range in the medium term and may have a short - term correction [1][5] Iron Ore - Variety View: This week, iron - making water production decreased significantly due to environmental protection control in Tangshan and some steel mills' loss - based maintenance. Steel mills reduced inventory, and port inventory increased. Overseas ore arrivals increased significantly, and the static fundamentals are neutral to bearish. The phased macro - positive factors have been exhausted, and the short - term ore price will fluctuate weakly [1][6] - Disk Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bearish. Reduced production disruptions and increased supply put pressure on ore prices [1][7] Coke - Variety View: The expectation of the third round of coke price increase is strengthening, and the game between coke and steel enterprises is obvious. Recently, coke enterprises' profits have improved slightly but are still mostly in a loss state. Iron - making water production has declined from a high level, steel mills' inventory is at a medium - low level, and the short - term replenishment enthusiasm is average. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited, and it will run within a range following the coking coal price [1][9] - Disk Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bearish [1][10] Coking Coal - Variety View: On the supply side, the coal mine operating rate decreased slightly month - on - month due to safety inspections and underground problems. There is still uncertainty in Mongolia's political situation, and the subsequent port traffic should be monitored. The exchange released opinions on the delivery quality standard, but the applicable contract is not clear yet, and it has limited impact on the listed contracts. Iron - making water production decreased significantly, and the demand side weakened marginally. Currently, the supply - demand pattern is still relatively healthy, and the price will run within a range [1][12] - Disk Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bearish [1][13] Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - Variety View: For ferromanganese, the production area supply level is still at a high level in the same period, downstream demand weakened marginally, and inventory continued to increase compared with the previous period. For ferrosilicon, the production area supply level remained high, downstream demand weakened marginally, and inventory increased significantly compared with the previous period. Attention should be paid to the re - warehousing situation after the warehouse receipt cancellation [1][16] - Disk Operation Suggestion: For ferromanganese, the manganese ore price increased slightly, and the short - term cost side provides some support for the price, so it is cautiously bearish. For ferrosilicon, its fundamentals have become looser, and there is upward pressure on short - term coal prices, so it should be treated bearishly [1][17]