期货市场交易指引：2025年11月05日-20251105

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro - Finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium - long term with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1][6] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended for selling call options [1][8][9] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is advised to close long positions at high levels or engage in range short - term trading; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips; Nickel suggests waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][12][13] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to move sideways. Soda ash 01 contract follows a short - selling mindset [1][23][24][34] - Cotton and Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to move sideways; PTA is in low - level oscillation; Apples and jujubes are in weak oscillation [1][37][38] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Pigs and eggs face pressure in rebounds; Corn is in a bottom - building oscillation; Soybean meal rebounds from a low level; Oils are in weak oscillation [1][41][48][49] 2. Core Views - The market is in a vacuum period of performance, events, and policies after the Sino - US trade negotiation, third - quarter reports, and the Fourth Plenary Session, so it will oscillate to wait for new changes at the end of the year [6] - The main trading line of Treasury bonds is not over, but the market is observing the scale and scope of the central bank's Treasury bond trading, so it is expected to move sideways [6] - The coal market has tight supply and demand, and prices are rising steadily. The supply of coking coal may be affected by the resumption of production in coal mines, and the price of rebar is expected to have limited downside space due to low valuation [8] - The supply of glass is high, demand is weak, and the overall supply - demand pattern is poor, so it is recommended to sell call options [10] - The short - term supply - demand situation of copper has limited support for prices, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. The supply of aluminum may face adjustments, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels [12][14] - The supply of nickel may be more abundant in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies. The supply of tin is expected to improve, and it is recommended for range trading [18][20] - Precious metals are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven needs, but are in a short - term adjustment state, and are recommended for range trading [20][22] - The supply - demand of PVC is still weak, and it is expected to oscillate. The supply of caustic soda is affected by alumina, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [23][25] - The cost of benzene ethylene is under pressure, and the overall chemical fundamentals are weak, so it is expected to oscillate. The cost support of rubber is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate [26][28] - The supply of urea decreases, demand increases, and the price is expected to rise slightly. The supply of methanol is tight in some areas, and the port inventory pressure is high, so it is expected to oscillate [29][31] - The supply of polyolefins has new production capacity, and demand is mainly for rigid needs, so PE is expected to oscillate, and PP is expected to oscillate weakly [33] - The supply of soda ash is excessive, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling mindset for the 01 contract [36] - The supply - demand of cotton and cotton yarn is expected to be stable, and it is expected to oscillate. The supply of PTA is in a state of inventory accumulation, and it is in low - level oscillation [37][38] - The quality of apples has declined, and consumption is weak, so the price is expected to decline. The price of jujubes is expected to decline [38][40] - The supply of pigs is large in the first half of next year, and prices face pressure. The supply of eggs is still large in the medium - long term, and prices face pressure [41][44] - The supply of corn is sufficient in the short term, and demand is weak, so it is in a bottom - building oscillation. The price of soybean meal is supported by cost and is expected to rebound [47][48] - Oils are under pressure in the short term but have support factors, and are expected to oscillate widely [54] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - Finance - Index Futures: A - shares and Hong Kong stocks are generally down. The market lacks catalysts and is expected to oscillate. It is bullish in the medium - long term and recommended to buy on dips [6] - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bond futures have mixed performance. The market is observing the central bank's operations, and it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation and expect sideways movement [6] 3.2 Black Building Materials - Double - Coking Coal: The coal market has tight supply and demand, and prices are rising. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production in coal mines [8] - Rebar: The price has fallen, but the low valuation limits the downside space. It is recommended to buy on dips for the RB2601 contract and focus on the range of 3000 - 3200 [8] - Glass: The supply is high, demand is weak, and the overall supply - demand pattern is poor. It is recommended to sell the 01 contract out - of - the - money call options and hold them until expiration [10] 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price has reached a new high and then declined. The short - term supply - demand has limited support, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. The recommended operating range of the main Shanghai copper contract is 85000 - 89000 [12][13] - Aluminum: The price of bauxite is under pressure, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum may face adjustments. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels [14] - Nickel: The supply may be more abundant in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [18] - Tin: The supply is expected to improve, and it is recommended for range trading, with the reference range of the Shanghai tin 12 contract being 275,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton [20] - Silver and Gold: They are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven needs, are in a short - term adjustment state, and are recommended for range trading. The reference range of the Shanghai silver 12 contract is 10700 - 11600, and that of the Shanghai gold 12 contract is 890 - 940 [20][22] 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The supply is high, demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate. The 01 contract is temporarily concerned about the range of 4600 - 4800 [23] - Caustic Soda: The supply is affected by alumina, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. The 01 contract is temporarily concerned about the pressure at 2400 [24] - Benzene Ethylene: The cost is under pressure, and the overall chemical fundamentals are weak. It is expected to oscillate, and the range of 6300 - 6700 is concerned [26] - Rubber: The cost support is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate. The support at 15000 is concerned [28] - Urea: The supply decreases, demand increases, and the price is expected to rise slightly. The 01 contract range is 1600 - 1700 [29][30] - Methanol: The supply is tight in some areas, and the port inventory pressure is high. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract range is 2230 - 2330 [31][32] - Polyolefins: The supply has new production capacity, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. PE is expected to oscillate, paying attention to the support at 6900, and PP is expected to oscillate weakly, paying attention to the support at 6600 [33] - Soda Ash: The supply is excessive, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling mindset for the 01 contract [36] 3.5 Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The supply - demand is expected to be stable, and it is expected to oscillate [37] - PTA: The price is in low - level oscillation, and the supply is in a state of inventory accumulation. The concerned range is 4400 - 4700 [38] - Apples and Jujubes: The quality of apples has declined, consumption is weak, and the price is expected to decline. The price of jujubes is also expected to decline [38][40] 3.6 Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: The 01 contract is under pressure due to postponed supply, and it is recommended to take profit on short positions gradually. The 03 and 05 contracts have large supply and weak demand in the first half of next year, and it is recommended to hold short positions. The 07 and 09 contracts should be carefully bottom - fishing [41] - Eggs: The 12 contract has a large premium over the spot, and it is recommended to short on rallies lightly. The 01 contract oscillates in the range of 3250 - 3400 [43][44] - Corn: The short - term supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. It is in a bottom - building oscillation, and the 01 contract oscillates in the range of 2050 - 2170. It is recommended to pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread [45][46][47] - Soybean Meal: It rebounds from a low level. The M2601 contract can take profit on a small scale at high levels and hold after a pullback. Spot enterprises can fix the basis from November to January at low points [48][49] - Oils: They are in a high - level adjustment, with palm oil being weak and soybean oil being strong. The 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil should pay attention to the support levels of 7900 - 8000, 8450 - 8500, and 9250 - 9350 respectively, and not chase short. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of the narrowing spread of rapeseed - soybean 01 and the widening spread of soybean - palm 01 [49][54]