市场情绪偏空，天胶盘面延续下跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market sentiment is bearish, with most agricultural product prices showing downward or volatile trends [1]. - The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber are under pressure, while the prices of some products such as corn and cotton are in a range - bound state [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes and Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - View: Yesterday, the prices rose first and then fell, and nearly half of the Brazilian soybeans have been planted. - Logic: Optimistic expectations for US soybean exports led to an increase in US soybeans and soybean oil on Monday. Domestically, the prices of oils and fats rose first and then fell yesterday, with soybean oil relatively strong. The US government shutdown, doubts about the Fed's interest - rate cut, and OPEC +'s decision to suspend production increase have affected the market. The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the probability of a decrease in US soybean yield is high. Brazilian soybean planting is progressing smoothly, with a planting progress of 47.1% as of November 1st. The expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China is at a relatively high level, and the speed of domestic soybean oil inventory reduction is expected to be slow. Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in October, while Indonesian palm oil inventory remains low. Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. The supply of rapeseed oil in China is expected to increase [8]. - Outlook: Palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to be in a weak shock state, while soybean oil will be in a shock state [8]. 3.1.2 Protein Meals - View: The crushing profit continues to recover, and the M1 - 5 reverse spread should be held. - Logic: CBOT soybeans are overbought, and soybean meal is in a high - level shock state, while the upward trend of rapeseed meal has slowed down. The US government's statement on China's soybean - purchasing plan has boosted the export expectation of US soybeans. The export volume of old - crop Brazilian soybeans in October decreased. In November, Brazilian soybeans enter the critical growth period, and the impact of La Nina needs to be monitored. Domestically, the short - term crushing profit of imported soybeans has recovered, and the import expectation is high. In the medium term, the quantity of China's soybean purchases from the US, South American weather, and the strength of the consumption peak season in the fourth quarter will determine the upward height of soybean meal. In the long term, there is no supply gap for soybeans in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly, while rapeseed meal may follow the trend of soybean meal [9]. - Outlook: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal will be in a shock state. The soybean meal 1 - 5 reverse spread should be held, and put options should be held [9]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - View: Farmers' reluctance to sell has increased, and downstream rigid demand provides support. - Logic: The domestic corn price is generally stable, with slight fluctuations in some areas. In the Northeast, farmers' reluctance to sell has increased, the circulation of grain sources has slowed down, and the supply pressure has been relieved. At the same time, the increase in external flow, transportation bottlenecks, and regional shortages in the sales area have supported the price. However, considering the expected high yield in the Northeast and the fact that the grain in some areas has not been fully marketed, the spot price still faces pressure [9][10]. - Outlook: Corn will be in a shock state, and short - term waiting and watching are recommended [10]. 3.1.4 Pigs - View: The supply for slaughter is abundant, and the price is weak. - Logic: In the short term, the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens has increased, but the rebound in pig prices has suppressed the sentiment of secondary fattening. The large - scale pig farms have a fast slaughter rhythm. In the medium term, the national sow inventory was still at a high level in the first half of 2025, and the number of newborn piglets increased continuously from January to September. It is expected that the slaughter volume of pigs will continue to increase in the fourth quarter. In the long term, the sow inventory has started to decline, and the reduction of sows is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter, and the supply pressure will gradually ease in the second half of 2026 [10][11]. - Outlook: The price of pigs will be in a weak shock state. In the near - term, the price is weak, while in the far - term, the price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. Attention should be paid to the reverse spread strategy [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - View: The market sentiment is bearish, and the price continues to decline. - Logic: The bearish sentiment in the financial market has led to a continuous decline in the natural rubber price. The cancellation of RU warehouse receipts and the slow progress of new rubber registration have made the valuation of RU lower than that of NR. In November, the import pressure may be relatively large, which will put pressure on NR. The short - term RU - NR spread may have a corrective market. The recent price fluctuations are mainly affected by the macro - environment. If there is no new macro - driving force, the rubber price may continue to adjust downward. However, due to the approaching domestic rubber - cutting season and the potential for speculation on RU warehouse receipts, the downward space is limited [3][12][13]. - Outlook: The rubber price will maintain a high - elasticity shock at the bottom. It is difficult to have a unilateral trend, and attention should be paid to widening the RU - NR spread in the short term [3][13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - View: The price of raw materials continues to decline, and the price hits a new low. - Logic: The continuous decline in the price of butadiene and the weak sentiment in the commodity market have led to a new low in the synthetic rubber price. The main reason is the rapid decline in the price of butadiene, which has weakened the bottom support of the market. The supply of butadiene is expected to be in excess in the next two months before the end of the year, and the price may continue to decline [14]. - Outlook: The fundamentals and raw material prices are under great pressure. Before the obvious supply - demand contradiction of butadiene is resolved, short - selling on rallies is recommended [14]. 3.1.7 Cotton - View: The short - term upward momentum of cotton prices has weakened, and a slight correction may occur. - Logic: The new - season cotton production in Xinjiang is less than expected, and the increase in the purchase price in southern Xinjiang since October has supported the cotton price. However, most of the positive factors have been priced in. The improvement in Sino - US trade relations has limited short - term impact on actual trade. Currently, it is the peak season for new cotton listing, and the increase in inventory and hedging activities will limit the upward space of cotton prices. However, the cost provides certain support [15]. - Outlook: In the short term, the 01 contract will be in a range - bound state. In the long term, the cotton price may rise due to the expected reduction of inventory in the 2025/2026 cotton year [15]. 3.1.8 Sugar - View: The general direction is to maintain a bearish operation. - Logic: In the international market, the peak season of Brazilian sugar production has ended, and the export volume in October has decreased. However, as the Northern Hemisphere enters the peak crushing season, the supply of new sugar will increase, and the downward pressure on international sugar prices remains. The market still expects an increase in Brazilian sugar production, and Thailand and India are also expected to have an increase in production in the new season. In the domestic market, the demand from August to September was average, and the industrial inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan increased year - on - year. Although the tightening of import control and the expectation of limited future imports have supported the domestic sugar price, as the southern sugar - producing areas enter the peak crushing season, the supply will increase, and the domestic sugar price also faces downward pressure [16]. - Outlook: In the medium - to - long term, the sugar price will be in a weak shock state. A short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton [16]. 3.1.9 Pulp - View: The strong upward trend has paused, and the market has returned to a quiet state. - Logic: The recent upward trend of pulp has paused, and the spot trading has become quiet again. The previous increase was due to the expected increase in the price of downstream paper and the improvement in the tender demand for cultural paper. In the medium term, the previous negative factors in the pulp market have not been fully digested, and the positive factors in downstream demand can only bring short - term support. Fundamentally, the demand for softwood pulp is low, and there is export pressure from overseas to China. The hardwood pulp is in a state of over - supply. The futures price is approaching the spot price, and it is difficult for the futures to have a premium. The large number of expiring warehouse receipts also puts pressure on the futures price. However, there are also some positive factors, such as the increase in the price of packaging paper, the increase in the cost of hardwood imports, and the expected improvement in the demand for cultural paper in November and December [18]. - Outlook: The pulp price will be in a shock state. The market is dominated by warehouse receipts and weak supply - demand, and the change in waste pulp may cause fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and watch [18]. 3.1.10 Double - Glued Paper - View: Double - glued paper is in a shock state. - Logic: The main contract of double - glued paper closed at 4266 yuan/ton yesterday, with a slight increase. The supply of paper is still in a serious over - supply situation, and the demand from the publishing tender has started, but the social orders have not improved significantly, and the downstream consumption is still weak. Some paper mills are facing great production and sales pressure. Although some paper mills have announced a price increase plan in early November, the market is in a wait - and - see state, and most prices are stable at the end of the month. In the future, in November, paper mills may increase their quotes as planned, and the price of double - glued paper is expected to stabilize [19]. - Outlook: A wait - and - see strategy is recommended for the unilateral strategy. Attention should be paid to the impact of new driving factors on market sentiment [20]. 3.1.11 Logs - View: Logs maintain a bottom - shock state. - Logic: The fundamentals of logs have continued to weaken this week, and the spot and futures prices have continued to decline. The recent concentrated arrival of logs at ports and the decline in the sales of laminated wood have put pressure on the spot price. The increase in the US dollar - based price two weeks ago has made it difficult for foreign quotes to be accepted. As New Zealand enters summer, the pressure of blue - stained logs on arrival will increase. After the peak season in the fourth quarter, logs may accumulate inventory again. However, the current valuation of logs is not high, and the inventory in the Jiangsu market is relatively low, so the downward space is limited [22]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of logs are weak, and the spot price may decline. The market will be in a bottom - shock state in the near term [22]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring No specific data content provided for detailed summary. 3.3 Index Data - Comprehensive Index: On November 4, 2025, the commodity index was 2229.67, down 0.92%; the commodity 20 index was 2521.83, down 0.98%; the industrial product index was 2213.57, down 1.07% [177]. - Agricultural Product Index: On November 4, 2025, the agricultural product index was 923.28, down 0.41% today, down 0.57% in the past 5 days, down 1.97% in the past month, and down 3.29% since the beginning of the year [179].