华东下游11月液碱采购价下调

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PVC shows a weak and volatile trend. Supply is increasing with the resumption of maintenance and new capacity coming online, while demand has a general purchasing sentiment. Export orders are weakening, and inventory is relatively high. The market is affected by policies such as anti - involution and real - estate development policies [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. Supply is increasing with new maintenance and capacity utilization changes. Demand from the alumina side is affected by environmental control, and non - aluminum demand will weaken in the off - season. The price may be supported by new alumina plant demand, and cost support exists due to factors like electricity price and chlorine price [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures and Basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,670 yuan/ton (- 10), the East China basis is - 70 yuan/ton (+ 10), and the South China basis is - 10 yuan/ton (- 10) [1]. - Spot Price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,600 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,660 yuan/ton (- 20) [1]. - Upstream Production Profit: The semi - coke price is 740 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price is 2,830 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit is - 52 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 763 yuan/ton (- 40), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is - 545 yuan/ton (+ 16), and the PVC export profit is 0.5 US dollars/ton (+ 4.2) [1]. - Inventory and Capacity Utilization: The PVC factory inventory is 33.8 million tons (+ 0.4), the social inventory is 54.5 million tons (- 1.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC capacity utilization is 76.47% (+ 4.82%), the ethylene - based PVC capacity utilization is 78.50% (- 0.06%), and the overall PVC capacity utilization is 77.09% (+ 3.35%) [1]. - Downstream Orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 77.4 million tons (+ 13.9) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures and Basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,336 yuan/ton (- 14), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 164 yuan/ton (+ 14) [1]. - Spot Price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (+ 0) [2]. - Upstream Production Profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,509 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 725.8 yuan/ton (+ 0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 113.78 yuan/ton (+ 0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 979.23 yuan/ton (- 90.51) [2]. - Inventory and Capacity Utilization: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 44.26 million tons (+ 2.83), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.73 million tons (+ 0.28), and the caustic soda capacity utilization is 84.30% (+ 3.50%) [2]. - Downstream Capacity Utilization: The alumina capacity utilization is 85.86% (- 0.41%), the dyeing capacity utilization in East China is 68.06% (+ 0.75%), and the viscose staple fiber capacity utilization is 89.66% (+ 1.05%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: Maintenance has resumed this week, supply has increased, and new capacity is gradually being put into production. The supply situation remains abundant [3]. - Demand: Downstream capacity utilization has increased, but the purchasing sentiment is general. Exports are trading at lower prices for volume, and export orders are weakening [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory has slightly decreased, but the absolute value is still high. The futures warehouse receipts are at a high level, putting pressure on the futures price [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: There are both new maintenance enterprises and capacity utilization increases. Attention should be paid to the 100,000 - ton capacity release of Tangshan Sanyou [3]. - Demand: Alumina orders in Shandong are stable, but the alumina capacity utilization in Hebei has decreased slightly due to environmental control. Non - aluminum demand will weaken in the off - season [3]. - Inventory: The national liquid caustic soda inventory has increased [3]. - Price: The spot price is stable with a slight decline. The price may be supported by new alumina plant demand, and cost support exists due to factors like electricity price and chlorine price [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Wide - range volatility, with the option to conduct positive arbitrage between futures and spot [4]. - Inter - period: Wait and see [4]. - Inter - variety: No strategy [4]. Caustic Soda - Single - side: Range - bound volatility [5]. - Inter - period: Wait and see [5]. - Inter - variety: No strategy [5].