聚烯烃日报：高供应压力持续，聚烯烃延续弱势-20251105

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - PE is under pressure due to prominent supply - demand contradictions. High supply, limited demand from sectors like agricultural films, and weak cost - end support lead to continued weak and volatile trends [2]. - PP also faces supply - demand contradictions. Supply is in excess, demand support is limited, and cost - end support is weak. It will continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: L主力合约收盘价为6879元/吨（-9）, PP主力合约收盘价为6560元/吨（-16）. LL华北现货为6870元/吨（-20）, LL华东现货为6950元/吨（-50）, PP华东现货为6530元/吨（-50）. LL华北基差为 - 9元/吨（-11）, LL华东基差为71元/吨（-41）, PP华东基差为 - 30元/吨（-34） [1]. - Upstream Supply: PE开工率为80.9%（-0.6%）, PP开工率为77.1%（+1.1%） [1]. - Production Profit: PE油制生产利润为272.7元/吨（-10.7）, PP油制生产利润为 - 387.3元/吨（-10.7）, PDH制PP生产利润为 - 109.5元/吨（+42.6） [1]. - Imports and Exports: LL进口利润为 - 7.0元/吨（-25.8）, PP进口利润为 - 255.7元/吨（+37.1）, PP出口利润为 - 15.8美元/吨（+0.7） [1]. - Downstream Demand: PE下游农膜开工率为49.5%（+2.4%）, PE下游包装膜开工率为51.3%（-1.3%）, PP下游塑编开工率为44.2%（-0.2%）, PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.6%（+0.2%） [1]. 2. Market Analysis - PE: Supply - side pressure is high due to reduced maintenance losses of domestic production facilities and the release of new production capacities. Demand growth may slow down, and cost - end support is expected to weaken. PE will continue weak and volatile [2]. - PP: Supply - demand contradictions exist. Supply is in excess, demand support is limited, and cost - end support is weak. It will continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. 3. Strategy - Single - side: LLDPE is neutral; PP is recommended to be cautiously shorted at high prices [3]. - Inter - term: L01 - 05 is recommended to be shorted at high prices; PP01 - 05 is recommended to be shorted at high prices [3]. - Inter - variety: No strategy is provided [3].