国泰君安期货所长早读-20251105

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's operations, including the 700 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase and the restart of treasury bond trading in October, will have a positive impact on the bond market's expectations [7]. - For lithium carbonate, the expectation of mine restart and the approaching off - season for power batteries will lead to a shift from destocking to stockpiling, with short - term price回调 and increased market volatility, but long - term optimism due to the expected explosion of energy storage demand next year [8]. - MEG has a large supply pressure, with the restart of some domestic devices and high import volumes, and the port inventory will accelerate the accumulation [9]. - The rebound of live pig prices is coming to an end, with negative feedback on regular demand, a decline in slaughter volume, and an expected shift to a downward trend in prices [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Central Bank Operations - On November 4, 2025, the central bank announced a 700 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on the 5th, which is an equal - amount roll - over for the 3 - month variety. Market institutions expect another 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation in November, and the outright reverse repurchase is expected to maintain a net injection. In October, the central bank restarted treasury bond trading, injecting 2 billion yuan [7]. 2. Key Recommended Sectors Lithium Carbonate - The price decline is mainly due to the expectation of the restart of Xiakeng Mine. The power battery is entering the off - season, and energy storage growth cannot offset the decline in power battery demand. It will shift from destocking to stockpiling, with short - term price回调 and long - term optimism [8]. MEG - The unilateral price has reached a new low. Some domestic devices have restarted, and the import volume is high. The supply pressure is large, and the port inventory will accelerate the accumulation [9]. Live Pigs - The price rebound since mid - October is coming to an end. There is negative feedback on regular demand, a decline in slaughter volume, and an expected shift to a downward trend in prices [10]. 3. Commodity Research Morning Report Precious Metals - Gold is affected by the continuous impact of government shutdown on liquidity, with a trend strength of 0. Silver is in a shock rebound, with a trend strength of - 1 [14][18][20]. Base Metals - Copper prices have declined due to concerns about the US economy, with a trend strength of 0 [14][22]. - Zinc is in a wide - range shock, with a trend strength of 0 [14][25]. - Lead lacks a clear driving force and is in price shock, with a trend strength of 0 [14][29]. - Tin is affected by macro factors, with a trend strength of 1 [14][31]. - Aluminum has support at the bottom, alumina's oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, all with a trend strength of 0 [14][34]. - Nickel is suppressed by smelting - end inventory accumulation and supported by the uncertainty of the ore end. Stainless steel prices are in a narrow - range shock at a low level, both with a trend strength of 0 [14][37]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium carbonate is in a weak shock due to the expectation of restart and off - season, with a trend strength of 0 [14][40]. - Industrial silicon has strong bottom support due to continuous warehouse receipt reduction, with a trend strength of 1. Polysilicon needs to pay attention to this week's information, with a trend strength of 0 [14][43]. - Iron ore is fluctuating at a high level, with a trend strength of 0 [14][46]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are affected by sector sentiment and are in a weak shock, both with a trend strength of 0 [14][51]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are affected by sector sentiment and supply - demand factors and are in a wide - range shock, both with a trend strength of 0 [14][57]. - Coke and coking coal are fluctuating at a high level, both with a trend strength of 0 [14][60]. - Logs are in a repeated shock [14][62].