中辉期货豆粕日报-20251105

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report covers multiple futures varieties, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs. The core views for each variety are as follows: - Soybean meal: Short - term oscillation. Concerned about Sino - US trade and Brazilian soybean planting weather [1][3]. - Rapeseed meal: Short - term oscillation. Focus on Sino - Canadian trade and Sino - US trade negotiation results [1][5]. - Palm oil: Short - term decline. Existing short positions can be held, but new short positions should be taken with caution [1][7]. - Soybean oil: Short - term consolidation. Pay attention to US biodiesel policy and Sino - US trade [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Short - term stop - falling consolidation. Monitor Sino - Canadian trade progress [1]. - Cotton: Short - term correction. Be wary of the risk of a slight decline during the pressure transfer to inland areas [1][11]. - Jujube: Cautiously bearish. Short - selling operations should be carried out based on purchase price changes and progress [1][13]. - Live pigs: Be vigilant against rebounds. Consider short - selling on rebounds for near - month contracts and pay attention to the 03 contract [1][16]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Market Situation: As of October 31, 2025, national port soybean inventory decreased, oil - mill soybean inventory decreased, and soybean meal inventory increased. Spot prices showed a slight decline, and the futures price also decreased slightly [2][3]. - Analysis Logic: Good rainfall in Brazil in the next 15 days, reduced sales pressure on oil mills, and the current tariff situation still supports the cost of domestic soybean meal. The main contract is expected to be in a large - range market [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - Market Situation: As of October 31, coastal oil - mill菜籽 inventory was 0, rapeseed meal inventory remained unchanged, and unexecuted contracts decreased. Futures prices rose slightly, and spot prices also increased [4][5]. - Analysis Logic: High port inventory and off - season consumption pressure the market, but the unresolved Sino - Canadian trade issue supports far - month contracts. The recent statement from Canada has cooled the expectation of tariff improvement [1][5]. Palm Oil - Market Situation: As of October 31, 2025, the national commercial inventory decreased. Futures and spot prices both declined, and the trading volume increased [6][7]. - Analysis Logic: Palm oil has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand. Malaysia is expected to continue to accumulate inventory in October and November. Indonesian production increase and market doubts about B50 are negative factors [1][7]. Cotton - Market Situation: In the US, new cotton is being harvested; in India, new cotton is being listed; in Pakistan, new cotton has been listed; in Brazil, the processing progress is slower than last year. In China, new cotton is almost harvested, and commercial inventory has recovered to the same - period level [8][9][10]. - Analysis Logic: The increase in supply from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries pressures the market, but India's MSP provides some support. In China, the cost of new cotton supports the bottom, but the increase in inventory and weak demand limit the upward movement [1][11]. Jujube - Market Situation: Xinjiang jujubes are concentrated for harvest. The expected reduction in production has been adjusted, and inventory has increased. Futures prices have fallen significantly, and spot prices are relatively stable [12][13]. - Analysis Logic: The large - scale harvest makes the new - season output clearer. High - inventory old jujubes and low acceptance of new jujubes in the market lead to an expected weakening of the market [1][13]. Live Pigs - Market Situation: In October, large - scale enterprises over - sold, and the planned output in November decreased. The inventory of sample enterprises increased, and the output decreased. Futures prices showed mixed trends, and spot prices decreased slightly [14][15]. - Analysis Logic: The supply pressure in Q4 remains high due to the postponed supply from second - fattening in October. The market should be vigilant against short - term rebounds, and pay attention to the 03 contract and anti - arbitrage opportunities [1][16].