中辉能化观点-20251105

Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the products in the energy and chemical industry are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea, and asphalt [2][4][6]. - Natural gas is rated as "Cautiously Bullish" [6]. - Glass is rated as "Bearish with Rebound" [6]. - Soda ash is rated as "Bearish with Consolidation" [6]. Core Viewpoints - The industry is generally affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost fluctuations, and geopolitical risks. Most products face downward pressure due to oversupply or weakening cost support, while natural gas has upward potential due to increased demand in the consumption season [2][4][6]. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Market Performance: Overnight international oil prices fell, with WTI down 0.80%, Brent down 0.69%, and SC unchanged from the previous period [8][9]. - Basic Logic: The core driver is the oversupply in the off - season. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause production increases in Q1 next year. Global crude oil inventories are accelerating the accumulation [10][11]. - Strategy: Hold existing short positions and consider adding short positions lightly. Pay attention to the price range of SC at [455 - 470] [12]. LPG - Market Performance: On November 4, the PG main contract closed at 4,266 yuan/ton, down 0.91% [14][15]. - Basic Logic: It follows the cost - end oil price. The cost is bearish as Saudi Arabia lowered the CP contract price again. The supply has decreased slightly, and the downstream chemical industry's operating rate has increased, but the inventory at ports has risen [16]. - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the price range of PG at [4200 - 4300] [17]. L - Market Performance: The L2601 contract closed at 7,009 yuan/ton [20]. - Basic Logic: Social inventory is slowly decreasing, and cost support is weakening. The supply is in a loose pattern, and the demand is in the peak season but lacks restocking motivation [21]. - Strategy: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell - hedge at high prices and hold short positions. Pay attention to the price range of L at [6750 - 6900] [21]. PP - Market Performance: The PP2601 closed at 6,691 yuan/ton [24]. - Basic Logic: The upstream and mid - stream inventories are at the same - period high. The demand is at the end of the "Silver October", and there is a high pressure to destock. The oil - based cost support is insufficient [25]. - Strategy: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell - hedge at high prices and hold short positions. Pay attention to the price range of PP at [6450 - 6600] [25]. PVC - Market Performance: The V2601 closed at 4,719 yuan/ton [28]. - Basic Logic: The cost support is weakening as the price of calcium carbide falls. The social inventory is stable, and the fundamentals maintain a high - inventory and high - warrant structure [29]. - Strategy: The market maintains a high contango. Industries should hedge at high prices. Be cautious when short - chasing. Pay attention to the price range of V at [4550 - 4700] [29]. PX - Market Performance: - Basic Logic: The supply side has domestic production cuts and overseas production increases. The demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are relatively high. The cost - end oil price rebounds but the supply - demand pattern remains loose [30]. - Strategy: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the price range of PX at [6550 - 6650] [31]. PTA - Market Performance: The TA01 closed at 4,586 yuan/ton [32]. - Basic Logic: The processing fee is low, and the later - stage device maintenance efforts are expected to increase, which will relieve the supply pressure. The terminal demand has slightly improved, but there is an expected inventory accumulation in November [33]. - Strategy: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the price range of TA at [4530 - 4590] [34]. MEG - Market Performance: - Basic Logic: Domestic and overseas devices have increased their loads. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and there is an expected inventory accumulation in November. The valuation is low, but there is no upward driver [36]. - Strategy: Hold short positions cautiously and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price range of EG at [3870 - 3950] [37]. Methanol - Market Performance: - Basic Logic: High inventory suppresses the spot price rebound. The supply pressure is large, and the demand performance is average. The cost support is weakly stable [40]. - Strategy: Hold short positions cautiously. Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices and consider the MA1 - 5 reverse spread. Pay attention to the price range of MA at [2091 - 2141] [42]. Urea - Market Performance: The UR01 closed at 1,625 yuan/ton [43]. - Basic Logic: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand has slightly improved. The inventory is at a high level but has decreased recently. The valuation is low [44]. - Strategy: The fundamentals are weak. Consider going long lightly in the medium - to - long - term. Pay attention to the price range of UR at [1610 - 1640] [46]. Natural Gas - Market Performance: On November 4, the NG main contract closed at 4.501 US dollars per million British thermal units, up 3.02% [48][49]. - Basic Logic: The geopolitical risk of sanctions on Russia has been released, and the demand for heating has increased with the temperature drop, which supports the gas price [50]. - Strategy: The rising demand in the consumption season supports the gas price, but the supply is sufficient, and the upward pressure is increasing. Pay attention to the price range of NG at [4.262 - 4.458] [51]. Asphalt - Market Performance: On November 4, the BU main contract closed at 3,193 yuan/ton, down 1.24% [53][54]. - Basic Logic: It follows the cost - end oil price. The cost support is decreasing, and the supply and demand are both weakening. The inventory has decreased [55]. - Strategy: The valuation is high, and the supply is sufficient. The medium - to - long - term trend is bearish. Lightly short - allocate. Pay attention to the price range of BU at [3100 - 3200] [56]. Glass - Market Performance: The FG2601 closed at 1,095 yuan/ton [59]. - Basic Logic: The daily melting volume has increased slightly, the fundamentals are in a loose pattern, and the capital game is intense. The inventory in factories is slowly decreasing but remains high [60]. - Strategy: The loose pattern is hard to change, and the medium - to - long - term rebound is bearish. Pay attention to the price range of FG at [1060 - 1110] [60]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The SA2601 closed at 1,209 yuan/ton [63]. - Basic Logic: The factory inventory is slightly decreasing but still at a high level. The demand is mostly rigid, and the supply is in a loose pattern due to high - production periods [64]. - Strategy: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell - hedge at high prices. The single - side rebound is bearish. Pay attention to the price range of SA at [1170 - 1220] [64].