Report Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention the industry investment ratings. Core Views - The "15th Five-Year Plan" draft suggests focusing on key areas for future investment. The recent Sino-US trade talks have reached a phased consensus, which will reduce the impact of tariff policies on the market and increase market risk appetite [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to trade between 7.09 - 7.14 this week, with a potentially stronger trend. Enterprises are advised to manage exchange rate risks [4]. - The stock index is expected to continue its short - term correction, especially for small and medium - cap stocks, but there is support below [6]. - Treasury bonds are recommended to be bought on dips [7]. - The container shipping futures for European routes are expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern in the short term. Traders are advised to be cautious [12]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase, and mid - term buying opportunities on dips can be considered [17]. - Copper prices may test the support around 85000; downstream enterprises can use a combination strategy to reduce procurement costs [19]. - Aluminum is expected to be in a high - level shock; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be in a high - level shock [20]. - Zinc is expected to be in a high - level shock [21]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a weak position with significant downward pressure, and macro factors need to be closely monitored [22]. - Tin is expected to be in a high - level shock, and long - term bullish sentiment remains [23]. - Carbonate lithium presents an opportunity for inventory replenishment [25]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in an oscillatory adjustment phase [27]. - Lead is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term due to supply shortages [28]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils may test the previous low support [29]. - Iron ore prices have limited upside potential, and short - selling opportunities after valuation repair can be considered [31]. - Coking coal and coke have seen the third round of price increases. They are suitable for long - positions in the black market [33]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate due to high inventory and weak demand [34]. - Crude oil is expected to oscillate between 60 - 65 dollars this week [37]. - LPG is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [39]. - PTA - PX is expected to be relatively strong and oscillate with the cost side [43]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate widely, and short - selling strategies can be considered [47]. - Methanol 01 may continue to decline [49]. - PP is expected to remain weak due to the supply - demand imbalance [51]. - PE is expected to be weak and oscillate due to high supply and limited demand [54]. - Pure benzene and styrene are likely to be weak and lack upward drivers [57]. - Fuel oil is expected to continue its downward trend [58]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil's valuation has increased [59]. - Asphalt is expected to continue its downward trend, and short - term waiting or short - selling can be considered [62]. - Rubber and 20 - numbered rubber are expected to continue their weak trend and search for a bottom [67]. - Urea is expected to be in a weak and oscillatory pattern [69]. - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, attention should be paid to the realization of supply expectations [70]. - Pulp and offset paper are expected to be relatively oscillatory in the short term [74]. - Logs are recommended to be short - sold, and attention should be paid to the 01 - 03 reverse spread opportunity [77]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - Macro: Focus on US employment data. The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft provides investment directions. The Sino - US trade talks have reached a phased consensus, but long - term trade frictions still need attention. The US government shutdown and the Fed's interest rate cut are also key factors [1][2]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The USD/CNY spot rate is expected to trade between 7.09 - 7.14 this week. Enterprises are advised to manage exchange rate risks [4]. - Stock Index: The stock index is expected to continue its short - term correction, especially for small and medium - cap stocks, but there is support below [6]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds are recommended to be bought on dips. The central bank's bond - buying in October was lower than expected [7]. - Container Shipping for European Routes: The futures are expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern in the short term. Traders are advised to be cautious [12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Gold & Silver: Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase. Mid - term buying opportunities on dips can be considered [17]. - Copper: Copper prices may test the support around 85000. Downstream enterprises can use a combination strategy to reduce procurement costs [19]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum is expected to be in a high - level shock; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be in a high - level shock [20]. - Zinc: Zinc is expected to be in a high - level shock [21]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel: They are in a weak position with significant downward pressure. Macro factors need to be closely monitored [22]. - Tin: Tin is expected to be in a high - level shock, and long - term bullish sentiment remains [23]. - Carbonate Lithium: It presents an opportunity for inventory replenishment [25]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: They are in an oscillatory adjustment phase [27]. - Lead: Lead is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term due to supply shortages [28]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coils: They may test the previous low support. The market is affected by production restrictions, raw material prices, and macro factors [29]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore prices have limited upside potential. Short - selling opportunities after valuation repair can be considered [31]. - Coking Coal & Coke: The third round of price increases has been implemented. They are suitable for long - positions in the black market [33]. - Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese: They are expected to oscillate due to high inventory and weak demand [34]. Energy & Chemicals - Crude Oil: Crude oil is expected to oscillate between 60 - 65 dollars this week [37]. - LPG: LPG is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [39]. - PTA - PX: They are expected to be relatively strong and oscillate with the cost side [43]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is expected to oscillate widely, and short - selling strategies can be considered [47]. - Methanol: Methanol 01 may continue to decline [49]. - PP: PP is expected to remain weak due to the supply - demand imbalance [51]. - PE: PE is expected to be weak and oscillate due to high supply and limited demand [54]. - Pure Benzene & Styrene: They are likely to be weak and lack upward drivers [57]. - Fuel Oil: Fuel oil is expected to continue its downward trend [58]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Its valuation has increased [59]. - Asphalt: Asphalt is expected to continue its downward trend. Short - term waiting or short - selling can be considered [62]. - Rubber & 20 - numbered Rubber: They are expected to continue their weak trend and search for a bottom [67]. - Urea: Urea is expected to be in a weak and oscillatory pattern [69]. - Glass, Soda Ash & Caustic Soda: Attention should be paid to the realization of supply expectations [70]. - Pulp & Offset Paper: They are expected to be relatively oscillatory in the short term [74]. - Logs: Logs are recommended to be short - sold, and attention should be paid to the 01 - 03 reverse spread opportunity [77].
南华期货早评-20251105
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-05 03:30