200亿的买债规模及其对市场的影响：2025年11月5日利率债观察

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The scale of the central bank's bond purchases in October was significantly less than last year, but the daily average net purchase was not low. The total net purchase in November is likely to exceed that in October [1]. - The scale of the central bank's future bond purchases depends on bond yield changes. The recent decline in interest rates may be due to market trading of the "central bank bond - buying" theme, and bond pricing will eventually return to fundamentals [2]. - There is theoretical downward space for the 10Y Treasury bond yield, but three points need to be noted: the speed of yield decline, the possible change of the "desirable level" over time, and the influence of market internal forces [3]. Summary by Related Catalog 1. Is the 20 - billion bond - buying scale small? - On November 4, 2025, the central bank disclosed a net bond purchase of 20 billion yuan in October, much less than last year's monthly 100 - 30 billion yuan. Using the daily average indicator, the daily net purchase was 50 billion yuan from October 28 - 31, and the November total is likely to exceed October's [1]. - The scale of the central bank's future bond purchases depends on bond yield changes. The 20 - billion purchase may not be the main reason for the 5bp decline in the 10Y Treasury bond yield from October 28 - 31, and bond pricing will return to fundamentals [2]. 2. The downward space of bond yields and three points to note - It is reasonable to think that the central bank's restart of bond - buying indicates that the Treasury bond yield in late October was at a desirable level. There is theoretical downward space for the 10Y Treasury bond yield, similar to the level in mid - June [3]. - Three points to note: the speed of yield decline may be more important than the specific level; the "desirable level" may change over time; the downward space is a theoretical maximum from a policy perspective, and market forces often dominate bond yield trends [3].