Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [12] Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is weak, and with the recent increase in domestic arrivals, rubber prices have been continuously declining. Although the supply in overseas main - producing areas is in the peak season, domestic arrivals are expected to maintain a certain growth rate, and domestic inventories are likely to further increase. However, due to rainfall disturbances in overseas main - producing areas, raw material prices are firm, and the cost - side support for natural rubber is still strong, which may limit the short - term downward space. Currently, the domestic futures price valuation is still low, but the supply - demand driving force is insufficient, and prices mostly follow the surrounding market sentiment [12] - The main factor driving the recent decline in butadiene rubber prices is the drag from the cost side. The price of its upstream raw material, butadiene, has shown a weak trend due to increased supply and weakened demand. Although the production profit of butadiene rubber has improved recently, offsetting some of the support from the concentrated maintenance of upstream devices, with the resilient downstream demand and the relatively low absolute price, the further downward space is expected to be limited [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 14,875 yuan/ton, a change of - 220 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 11,960 yuan/ton, a change of - 240 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,205 yuan/ton, a change of - 155 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,450 yuan/ton, a change of - 150 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,400 yuan/ton, a change of - 200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,820 US dollars/ton, a change of - 10 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,690 US dollars/ton, a change of - 30 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,500 yuan/ton, a change of + 0 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,150 yuan/ton, a change of - 200 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Heavy - truck Market: In October 2025, the wholesale sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 93,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. It is expected that after November, the cumulative sales will exceed 1 million vehicles [2] - Global Natural Rubber: According to the ANRPC's September 2025 report, the global natural rubber production in September was expected to increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; the consumption was expected to decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - China's Natural Rubber Imports: In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] - Thailand's Natural Rubber Exports: In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the export of standard rubber totaled 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the export of latex was 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total exports of natural rubber to China were 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the export of standard rubber to China totaled 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the export of smoked sheet rubber to China totaled 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the export of latex to China totaled 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [3] - Automobile Production and Sales: In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. The monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months [4] - China's Rubber Tire Exports: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In terms of the number of pieces, the export volume was 5.3491 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires in the first three quarters was 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [4] - EU Passenger Car Market: In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On November 4, 2025, the RU basis was - 425 yuan/ton (+ 70), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 475 yuan/ton (- 20), the NR basis was 941.00 yuan/ton (+ 172.00); the price of whole latex was 14,450 yuan/ton (- 150), the price of mixed rubber was 14,400 yuan/ton (- 200), the price of 3L spot was 15,000 yuan/ton (- 100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,820 US dollars/ton (- 10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 550 yuan/ton (- 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,700 yuan/ton (- 200) [6] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 59.00 Thai baht/kg (- 1.00), the price of Thai latex was 56.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.30), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.90 Thai baht/kg (- 1.40), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 1.40) [7] - Operating Rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.34% (- 0.53%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.12% (- 0.72%) [8] - Inventories: The social inventory of natural rubber was 447,668 tons (+ 15,439), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,038,951 tons (- 11,478), the RU futures inventory was 120,900 tons (- 3,120), and the NR futures inventory was 44,655 tons (+ 2,015) [8] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On November 4, 2025, the BR basis was - 105 yuan/ton (- 45), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 6,900 yuan/ton (- 300), the quoted price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,500 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,150 yuan/ton (- 200), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 9,850 yuan/ton (- 200), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 2,443 yuan/ton (- 158) [9] - Operating Rates: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.90% (- 4.81%) [10] - Inventories: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 3,680 tons (- 840), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,200 tons (- 1,450) [11]
化工日报：市场氛围偏弱，胶价继续下行-20251105
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-05 05:04