美联储达到合理准备金规模：——全球货币转向跟踪第10期

Global Monetary Policy Trends - In October 2025, among 26 major economies tracked, 7 economies cut interest rates, with the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4%[1][8] - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its rates for the third consecutive time but signaled a hawkish stance, while the Bank of Japan kept its rates unchanged but expressed a dovish outlook[1][8] - Market expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have fluctuated, with a 70% probability of a December cut as of late October, indicating uncertainty about additional cuts within the year[2][20] U.S. Liquidity Tracking - As of October 29, 2025, the Federal Reserve's reserve balance decreased to $2.83 trillion, representing approximately 12% of nominal GDP, indicating that excess liquidity is nearly exhausted[3][9] - The overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) balance significantly shrank to $19.5 billion, with usage almost depleted, reflecting tight liquidity conditions[3][9] - The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) to interest on excess reserves (IOER) spread narrowed from -7 basis points to a minimum of -3 basis points, showing tightening liquidity due to balance sheet reduction[4][36] Global Financial Market Liquidity - The bid-ask spread for U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds remained stable between 0.19 and 0.39 basis points, indicating that liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market has not significantly deteriorated despite the Fed's balance sheet reduction[5][44] - Credit risk premiums in the U.S. remained low, with credit default swap (CDS) prices for U.S. corporate bonds showing limited impact from recent regional banking credit events[5][44] - The Libor-OIS spread increased significantly, reaching a peak of 110 basis points, indicating rising liquidity premiums in the market[5][44]