有色金属行业跟踪周报：中美地缘关税缓和叠加美联储鹰派降息，工业金属高位震荡-20251105

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a 2.56% increase in the week from October 27 to October 31, ranking it among the top performers in all primary industries. The energy metals sector rose by 6.31%, while the industrial metals sector increased by 1.91% [14][1] - The easing of geopolitical trade tensions between China and the U.S. and the Federal Reserve's hawkish rate cuts have led to a generally optimistic sentiment for industrial metal prices, although further upward movement will depend on supply-demand dynamics [1][26] - Precious metals have seen a price correction due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and the easing of trade tensions, but the overall macroeconomic framework remains favorable for long positions in precious metals [4][49] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.11%, with the non-ferrous metals sector increasing by 2.56%, outperforming the index by 2.45 percentage points [14] - The report highlights that all sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals saw gains, with energy metals leading the way [14] Industrial Metals - Copper: LME copper closed at $10,892 per ton, down 0.51% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥87,010 per ton, down 0.81%. Supply disruptions and a new LME policy to limit large positions are expected to support copper prices in the long term [30][2] - Aluminum: LME aluminum rose to $2,888 per ton, up 1.10%, with SHFE aluminum at ¥21,300 per ton, up 0.35%. The EU's ban on Russian LNG is contributing to price increases [35][3] - Zinc: Zinc prices increased, with LME zinc at $3,050 per ton, up 1.01%. Zinc inventories have decreased, supporting price stability [39][3] - Tin: Tin prices rose due to ongoing supply tightness, with LME tin at $36,180 per ton, up 1.49% [45][3] Precious Metals - Gold: COMEX gold closed at $4,077.20 per ounce, down 1.20%, while SHFE gold was at ¥921.92 per gram, down 1.72%. The easing of geopolitical tensions has reduced safe-haven demand, leading to price corrections [48][4] - The report anticipates a significant probability of further rate cuts in December, maintaining a favorable outlook for precious metals in the medium term [49][4]