农产品日报：出栏压力延续，猪价震荡运行-20251105

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the pig market is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the egg market is cautiously bearish [6] Group 2: Core Views - The pig market is facing an oversupply situation, with high pressure on supply after the Spring Festival and potential challenges in consumption absorption. The supply - demand imbalance may persist [2] - The egg market has low inventory build - up willingness from deep - processing and feed enterprises, and the situation of oversupply remains due to the concentrated listing of new grain [5] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Pig Market - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2601 contract was 11,685 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton (- 0.43%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 11.96 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.25 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 12.15 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.34 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.63 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.21 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices: On November 4, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 124.96, down 0.13 points; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 126.95, down 0.16 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 18.02 yuan/kg, up 0.2%; beef was 66.73 yuan/kg, up 0.6%; mutton was 63.20 yuan/kg, down 0.1%; eggs were 7.27 yuan/kg, down 0.3%; white - striped chicken was 17.22 yuan/kg, down 2.2% [1] Egg Market - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2512 contract was 3144 yuan/500 kg, a change of - 14 yuan (- 0.44%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.69 yuan/jin; in Shandong, it was 2.85 yuan/jin; in Hebei, it was 2.69 yuan/jin. The spot basis remained unchanged in these regions, with only the basis difference changing by + 14 [3] - Inventory: On November 4, 2025, the production - link inventory was 1.15 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.29 days, both unchanged from the previous day [4] Group 4: Market Analysis Pig Market - The inventory of large and medium - sized pigs over 5 months old decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and the year - on - year decline narrowed by 2.4%. The number of newborn piglets increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 6.6% year - on - year. The large - scale farms had a 1.8% month - on - month and 11% year - on - year increase, indicating significant long - term supply pressure mainly due to post - Spring Festival consumption decline and supply increase [2] - The second - fattened pigs entering the market this month are expected to be slaughtered at the end of the year, and the consumption side may not be able to absorb the supply increase, so the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern may persist [2] Egg Market - Deep - processing and feed enterprises have relatively low inventory, weak inventory - building willingness, and a strong wait - and - see attitude. The new grain is concentrated on the market, and the oversupply situation remains. Attention can be paid to farmers' grain - selling progress and traders' inventory levels [5] Group 5: Strategies Pig Market - Take a cautiously bearish stance [3] Egg Market - Take a cautiously bearish stance [6] Corn Market - It is expected that the corn price will continue to fluctuate weakly this week [5]