锌月报：供应压力缓解，沪锌震荡偏强-20251105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term supply - side contraction due to shrinking profits of domestic zinc smelters and tight ore supply is favorable for zinc prices. The continuous opening of the domestic export window is expected to relieve the high domestic inventory pressure, and zinc may continue to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern. However, after the end of the downstream peak season, the weakening consumption of refined zinc may limit the increase in zinc prices. [1][47][48] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - In October, zinc prices at home and abroad ended the previous downward trend, rebounded after volatile consolidation. In the first and middle of the month, the domestic zinc supply - demand situation weakened, and inventory continued to accumulate. After the holiday, SHFE zinc opened higher and then trended lower. In the late month, the domestic export window opened, the oversupply of domestic inventory was relieved, and the expectation of US interest rate cuts strengthened, leading to a continuous rise in SHFE zinc. - In November, zinc concentrate processing fees continued to decline, further compressing the profits of zinc smelting enterprises. Some high - cost enterprises reduced production, intensifying the expectation of supply - side contraction. With domestic supply contraction and the opening of the export window, the domestic inventory pressure is expected to be relieved, but the weakening demand and high domestic inventory may limit the increase in zinc prices. [7] 3.2. Analysis of Zinc Influencing Factors 3.2.1. High - speed Increase in Global Zinc Ore Supply - With the resumption of production of global zinc mines and the ramping - up of new projects, global zinc ore supply increased at a high - speed year - on - year. In August, global zinc ore production was 1.0976 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.14%. In 2025, the main driving force for the increase in global mine production came from the resumption and increase of production of overseas mine projects and new production capacity in Xinjiang, China. - In September, domestic zinc concentrate production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In October, the production of some mines in Anhui and Guizhou was planned to resume, but as domestic mines gradually entered the seasonal supply off - season, the zinc concentrate production continued to decline. Overall, overseas mines are recovering rapidly, with a long - term expectation of global mine oversupply, but currently, domestic ore supply is gradually decreasing. [13][14] 3.2.2. High - level Domestic Zinc Ore Imports - In September 2025, the import of zinc concentrate was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. The cumulative import of zinc concentrate from January to September was 4.008 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. The top three import source countries in September were Australia, Peru, and Oman. - In September, the import volume of zinc concentrate increased slightly month - on - month, maintaining a high level in recent years. Although the import window for zinc ore was closed in September, the arrival of locked - price and long - term contract zinc ores and strong demand for winter storage led to a continuous import volume. In October, the import window remained closed. Considering the strong demand for winter storage by domestic smelters but unfavorable import ratios, the import volume of zinc concentrate is expected to decrease. - Due to factors such as increased demand for winter storage by domestic smelters, seasonal production cuts of domestic mines, and expanded losses of imported ores, both domestic and imported zinc concentrate processing fees have been adjusted downward. [15][16][17] 3.2.3. Gradual Expansion of Global Zinc Supply - demand Surplus - In August 2025, the global refined zinc production was 1.2269 million tons, and the demand was 1.179 million tons, with a monthly supply - demand surplus of 47,900 tons. From January to August, the cumulative production of refined zinc was 9.1482 million tons, a cumulative increase of 0.14%, and the cumulative demand was 8.9683 million tons, a cumulative increase of 0.19%. The cumulative global refined zinc supply - demand surplus from January to August was 179,900 tons. [19][22] 3.2.4. Expected Contraction of Domestic Zinc Supply - In October 2025, China's zinc ingot production was 617,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 21.45%. The cumulative production from January to October increased by 10% year - on - year, lower than expected. In November, with the rapid decline of domestic and imported processing fees, the comprehensive smelting profits of smelters were severely compressed, and some high - cost areas faced the risk of losses. Some smelters in the northwest and central China may actively reduce production in November. - In September 2025, China's refined zinc import volume was 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 57.03%. In October, zinc ingot import losses reached a record high since 2022, severely suppressing imports, while the export window remained open, relieving domestic inventory pressure. [27][28][29] 3.2.5. Downstream Demand Enters the Off - season - In the galvanizing industry, after the holiday, the galvanizing start - up rate rebounded month - on - month but then remained stable. In October, due to the mediocre performance of black metal prices, the consumption of galvanizing was lower than expected, and the start - up rate showed a downward trend. - In the die - casting zinc alloy industry, in early October, the start - up rate declined slightly month - on - month due to the holidays. In the middle of the month, it increased significantly but then weakened. In November, with the arrival of the traditional off - season, orders are expected to be sluggish, and the start - up rate may further decline. - In the zinc oxide industry, the start - up rate of zinc oxide enterprises first decreased and then increased in October. Overall, the start - up rate was relatively stable compared with previous years, but the peak - season effect weakened. The demand in traditional fields was weak, and the increase in the start - up rate in the later stage was limited. - From the perspective of zinc terminal industries, the real estate industry remained weak, infrastructure investment growth continued to slow down, and the automobile industry showed good production and sales data. In November, downstream terminal demand entered the off - season, and demand may gradually weaken, especially in northern regions affected by the heating season. [31][33][37] 3.2.6. Obvious Differentiation of Domestic and Overseas Zinc Inventories - In October, LME zinc inventory continued to decline, reaching 33,800 tons at the end of the month. Currently, LME inventory is at an absolute low in recent years. Although LME plans to introduce policies to restrict large near - month positions, overseas spot premiums have fallen from high levels. With the narrowing of domestic export profits, the low - inventory situation overseas may continue. - In October, domestic zinc social inventory continued to rise and then slightly declined from the high level at the end of the month. Currently, the inventory is still at a high level in recent years, with relatively large inventory pressure. In November, as downstream demand enters the off - season and domestic zinc supply is expected to shrink, the domestic inventory pressure may be further relieved. [42][44] 3.3. Market Outlook - Macroscopically, there is great uncertainty in the external environment. The Sino - US leaders' meeting improved market sentiment in the short term, but Trump's policies are still variable. The Fed's interest rate cut with a hawkish stance and the strengthening of the US dollar may suppress zinc prices. Domestically, policies form a support. The suggestion to set a production capacity cap for zinc and the "15th Five - Year Plan" boost long - term demand for non - ferrous metals. - On the supply side, global zinc mine supply is growing at a high - speed year - on - year, and the long - term ore supply shortage is easing. However, in the short term, the increase in mine production mainly flows into China, and overseas ore supply remains tight with low inventory. Due to various factors, domestic and overseas zinc concentrate processing fees have decreased, and domestic smelting enterprises' profit compression is expected to lead to supply contraction. The opening of the export window relieves domestic inventory pressure. - On the demand side, the real estate industry remains weak, infrastructure investment declines month - on - month, and the domestic automobile industry grows steadily. However, downstream demand enters the off - season, and demand may further weaken, especially in northern regions affected by the heating season. [47][48]