年底降息存疑，铜价下寻支撑

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After the Fed cut interest rates as expected in October, internal differences within the Fed have increased. Many officials have turned cautious about a December rate cut, and the rebound of the US dollar index has pressured the metal market. There are also concerns about a slowdown in the US economic growth rate in the fourth quarter. In China, the 14th Five-Year Plan focuses on high-quality development, and the long - term positive momentum of the economy remains unchanged [2][96]. - This year, the global refined ore supply growth rate may be less than 1%, and the growth of global refined copper production capacity has hit a bottleneck. Domestic production has declined month - by - month, while imports have rebounded. In the consumption sector, the traditional industries did not show a peak - season boom in October, but emerging industries, especially data centers, provide broad incremental space for copper consumption. Domestic and global inventories have continued to rise [2][96]. - With the long - term government shutdown in the US lacking key data guidance, the Fed's balance of dual risks is challenged again. The market is pricing in a recession expectation for the US economy in the fourth quarter. China's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes the high - quality development path, and anti - involution policies are being gradually implemented. The shortage of ore supply is difficult to resolve, domestic refined copper production is declining, and high copper prices are suppressing some traditional terminal consumption. However, strong cost support remains. It is expected that copper prices will stabilize and rebound after adjustment in November, showing a pattern of first decline and then rise [2][96]. Summary by Directory 1. October 2025 Copper Market Review - In October 2025, copper prices showed an overall oscillating upward trend. LME copper rose from a minimum of $10,263 at the beginning of the month to $11,200, and SHFE copper rose from 84,600 to around 89,200. As of October 31, LME copper closed at $10,901.5/ton with a monthly increase of 5.8%, and SHFE copper closed at 87,010 yuan/ton with a monthly increase of 4.7%. The RMB exchange rate appreciated slightly, and the copper market showed a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic [7]. - The Fed cut interest rates as expected in October, but Powell's post - meeting statement made the December rate cut uncertain. The ECB continued to pause rate cuts. Overseas, major copper mines had slow resumption of production, and domestic refined copper production declined in the fourth quarter, providing cost support for copper prices. The improvement in macro - sentiment also contributed to the rise in copper prices. However, after copper prices reached new highs, downstream enterprises showed a wait - and - see attitude, and the traditional peak season was lackluster [7][10]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 Sino - US Economic and Trade Negotiations Reached a Phased Consensus, and Powell Turned Hawkish After the Fed Rate Cut - Sino - US leaders reached a phased consensus on economic and trade issues in late October. The US cancelled the 10% fentanyl tariff on China, suspended relevant export control rules, and China suspended relevant counter - measures. This will help reduce bilateral trade costs, boost China's exports, and strengthen the RMB [13]. - The US government shutdown has entered its sixth week, causing an economic loss of $18 billion this year, with the Q4 real GDP growth rate expected to be 1.5% lower than previously forecast. Powell turned hawkish after the October rate cut, and the December rate cut is uncertain due to high inflation and data shortages caused by the government shutdown. However, in the medium - term, the new Fed chairman may adopt a more dovish policy [14]. 2.2 The US Service Industry Showed Weakness, and the Eurozone's Q3 GDP Growth Rate Exceeded Expectations - The US ISM services PMI in October dropped to 50, the lowest since 2020. New orders and business activity declined, and the employment index contracted for four consecutive months. The US economy in the fourth quarter faces downward pressure [15]. - The Eurozone's Q3 GDP grew by 0.2% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding expectations. France's economy grew by 0.5% quarter - on - quarter, but Germany's economy stagnated. The ECB continued to pause rate cuts in October, and it may continue to cut rates in the future due to the impact of US tariffs. The IMF predicts that the Eurozone's GDP growth will be 1.2% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026 [17]. 2.3 The Fourth Plenary Session Focused on High - Quality Development and Implemented the "Artificial Intelligence +" Initiative - The "14th Five - Year Plan" proposes requirements for economic and social development, including high - quality development, reform and innovation, and meeting people's needs. It also emphasizes principles such as Party leadership, people - centeredness, and high - quality development [18]. - The Ministry of Science and Technology will strengthen the top - level design and systematic deployment of artificial intelligence, including basic research, the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, governance, and international cooperation. The plan also aims to develop emerging pillar industries and layout future industries, which will drive economic growth in the next 10 years [19]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Slow Resumption of Global Interrupted Mines and Under - expected Output Growth of Major Miners in Q3 - As of the end of October, the spot TC of copper concentrate remained above - $40/ton, at a relatively low historical level. The resumption of major interrupted mines is slow, and the global copper concentrate supply growth rate in 2025 is expected to be less than 1%. Some major miners have significantly lowered their production expectations for this year and next year, and concerns about medium - term supply shortages are rising [22][23]. - Glencore's Q3 copper production was 239,600 tons, with a quarterly increase of 36.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 1%. Its full - year production guidance was lowered to 850,000 - 875,000 tons. Antamina's Q3 equity copper production was 34,500 tons, with a quarterly increase of 52% and a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Its full - year production guidance is 126,000 - 129,000 tons [24]. - First Quantum's Q3 copper production was 104,600 tons, with a quarterly increase of 15% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.9%. Its full - year production guidance was slightly lowered to 390,000 - 410,000 tons. Rio Tinto's Q3 copper production was 204,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10% and a quarterly decrease of 11%. It maintained its full - year production guidance of 780,000 - 850,000 tons [25][27]. 3.2 Slow Resumption of Global Interrupted Mines and Under - expected Output Growth of Major Miners in Q3 - China's electrolytic copper production in October was 1.0919 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.66%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 11.1534 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.96%. In October, domestic production continued to decline due to the shortage of concentrate supply and the reduction of waste copper supply [29]. - Overseas, some smelters faced problems such as production suspension and slow production ramp - up. The actual output increase of overseas refined copper in 2025 is expected to be about 50,000 tons [30]. 3.3 Continuous Recovery of Refined Copper Imports and Stable Waste Copper Imports - From January to September, China's cumulative imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 4.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The imports of copper ore and concentrate were 22.6667 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.82%. The imports of refined copper were 2.537 million tons, with the year - on - year decline narrowing to 4.1%. In September, imports recovered rapidly, but may have declined slightly in October [54]. - The Yangshan copper bill of lading premium continued to fall in October, and the import window was not effectively opened. The total waste copper imports from January to September were 1.515 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.12%. China will continue to expand waste copper imports from Southeast Asia [54][56]. 3.4 High - level Increase in North American Inventories and Rebound of Domestic Social Inventories from Low Levels - Since October, domestic inventories have rebounded from low levels, and global visible inventories have continued to rise. As of October 31, the total inventory of the three major exchanges (LME, COMEX, and SHFE) was 605,000 tons, an increase of 41,000 tons from the previous month. Domestic copper visible inventories (SHFE + Shanghai bonded area) rose to 222,700 tons, a significant increase of 44,700 tons from the previous month [61][62]. - High copper prices have led to a lackluster peak season in the terminal consumption market, and domestic inventories have continued to rise, dragging the near - month futures structure towards flat water [61][63]. 3.5 Traditional Industries Had a Lackluster Peak Season, and Emerging Industries Showed Strong Development Momentum - In the power grid investment sector, the cumulative growth rate has slowed down. In October, the operating rate of copper cable enterprises was less than 70%. The high copper prices have significantly dragged down downstream orders in the power grid investment industry, and it is expected that the growth rate of copper consumption in power grid investment will remain at a low level of 2.5% - 3% [67][68]. - In the photovoltaic industry, it is undergoing structural reform. The growth rate of the wind power industry is sluggish, and it is expected that the total copper consumption in the wind and solar industries will decline by about 10% this year [69][72]. - The real estate market has not emerged from the bottom - building cycle, and it is expected that the decline in copper consumption in the real estate sector will exceed 10% this year [73][74]. - The production and sales of new energy vehicles have maintained high growth, and it is expected that the growth rate of copper consumption in new energy vehicles will remain above 25% this year [77][78]. - The global data center market is expected to exceed $230 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of over 10%. It is expected to bring about 1.05 million tons of incremental copper demand by 2026 [79]. 4. Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, the Fed's internal differences have increased after the October rate cut, and the government shutdown has made the December rate cut uncertain. The US dollar index rebound has pressured the metal market, and there are concerns about a US economic recession in Q4. In China, the long - term positive economic trend remains unchanged [2][96]. - Fundamentally, the global refined ore supply growth rate is expected to be less than 1%, and the growth of global refined copper production capacity has hit a bottleneck. Domestic production is declining, while imports are rebounding. Traditional industries had a lackluster peak season in October, but emerging industries provide broad incremental space for copper consumption. Inventories are rising [2][96]. - Overall, copper prices are expected to stabilize and rebound after adjustment in November, showing a pattern of first decline and then rise [2][96].