中辉有色观点-20251105

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term bullish [1] - Silver: Long - term bullish [1] - Copper: High - level adjustment in the short - term, long - term bullish [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure, short - term profit - taking for long positions, long - term short - selling on rebounds [1] - Lead: Rise and then fall [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Weak [1] - Industrial Silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: High - level adjustment, wait for stabilization [1] Core Views - The shutdown of the US government has led to liquidity depletion, causing significant drops in capital markets including the precious metals market. Gold and silver are expected to stop falling in the short - term and are long - term bullish due to factors like global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. However, sentiment fluctuation risks need to be guarded against [2][3]. - Copper is under high - level adjustment in the short - term due to factors such as the strengthening US dollar and the approaching consumption off - season. But in the long - term, it remains bullish because of tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand [1][6]. - Zinc is facing a situation where supply is increasing while demand is decreasing. In the short - term, long positions should take profits at high levels, and in the long - term, short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1][10]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure in the short - term as the terminal consumption is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season, with overseas supply shrinking and domestic supply remaining high [1][13]. - Nickel prices are weak as overseas and domestic inventories are rising, and the terminal consumption of downstream stainless steel is fading [1][17]. - Lithium carbonate prices are under high - level adjustment. Although there are short - term shocks from复产 news, the fundamentals are improving with continuous de - stocking. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize [1][20]. Summary by Catalog Gold and Silver Market Review - The shutdown of the US government and other events have led to liquidity depletion, causing significant drops in the precious metals market [2]. Basic Logic - The US government shutdown may set a new record, and the market is facing liquidity depletion. There are also internal differences within the Fed regarding the December interest rate cut. In the long - term, gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, both gold and silver have stopped falling. For the medium - and long - term, consider entering the market after stabilization. The support levels are 900 for domestic gold and 11200 for silver. Long - term value - oriented positions can be held [4]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper opened lower overnight and is under high - level adjustment [6]. Industry Logic - In October, China's electrolytic copper production decreased. The consumption is gradually entering the off - season, and the market is worried about the economy as the manufacturing PMIs in China and the US have weakened in October [6]. Strategy Recommendation - Due to the US government shutdown, the strengthening US dollar is suppressing commodities. Copper opened lower overnight and tested the 85000 support level. It is recommended to try long positions at low levels near the lower moving averages. Long - term strategic long positions should be held. For industrial hedging, options protection can be added, positions should be reduced, and strict risk control should be implemented. In the long - term, copper is still bullish [7]. Zinc Market Review - Shanghai zinc rebounded but faced pressure [9]. Industry Logic - The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrate has declined due to smelters' winter stockpiling. The profit of refined zinc enterprises has slightly increased. The consumption is entering the off - season, and the domestic zinc ingot export window has opened [9]. Strategy Recommendation - Due to the decline in macro and sector sentiment, Shanghai zinc tested the 22800 level and then fell back. Short - term long positions should take profits at high levels. In the long - term, short - selling on rebounds is recommended [10]. Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices are under pressure at high levels, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [12]. Industry Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas expectation of a year - end interest rate cut by the Fed has weakened. The domestic production capacity is high, and the terminal consumption is fading. For alumina, overseas shipments have decreased due to the rainy season in Guinea, and the domestic industry is facing profit contraction [13]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to take profits at high levels for Shanghai aluminum in the short - term, and pay attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises'开工 rate. The main operating range is [21000 - 21700] [14]. Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices have slightly stabilized, and stainless steel shows a relatively weak trend [16]. Industry Logic - The overseas expectation of a year - end interest rate cut by the Fed has weakened. Overseas and domestic nickel inventories are increasing, and the terminal consumption of stainless steel is approaching the end of the peak season [17]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to the downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 122000] [17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2601 opened high and closed low, with a reduction of over 70,000 lots in a day and a decline of over 4% [19]. Industry Logic - The market is spreading news of复产, which may impact the market in the short - term. However, the fundamentals are improving with continuous de - stocking for 11 weeks, and the terminal demand remains strong [20]. Strategy Recommendation - It is advisable to wait and see and wait for the market to stabilize within the range of [76800 - 78800] [21].