国富期货早间看点：市场预期马棕10月库存料升至244万吨StoneX预计2025年美豆单产53.6蒲/英亩-20251105

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the agricultural and energy futures markets, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, and capital flow data. It also provides forecasts on the supply and demand of key agricultural products such as palm oil and soybeans. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight行情 - Overnight closing prices, previous day's and overnight percentage changes are given for various futures including palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. For example, the closing price of BMD palm oil 01 is 4139.00 with a previous day's increase of 0.70% and an overnight decrease of 0.12% [1]. - Latest prices and percentage changes are provided for multiple currencies such as the US dollar index, Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, etc. For instance, the US dollar index is at 100.20 with a 0.34% increase [1]. 现货行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are presented. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 8720 with a basis of 100 and no change in basis [3]. - CNF升贴水 and CNF报价 for imported soybeans from different regions are shown. The CNF升贴水 for Brazilian soybeans is 235 cents per bushel and the CNF报价 is 503 dollars per ton [5]. 重要基本面信息 - 产区天气: Rainy weather has returned to central Brazil, which is beneficial for soybean crops. Different states in Brazil have different weather conditions and temperature trends [6]. - 国际供需 - MPOB月报前瞻: Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to rise 3.5% to 2440000 tons in October, with production reaching 1940000 tons (up 5.6% from the previous month) and exports increasing 3.8% to 1480000 tons [8]. - StoneX: Reduced the US 2025 soybean yield forecast from 53.9 to 53.6 bushels per acre, and the production forecast to 4.303 billion bushels [8]. - S&P Global Commodity Insights: Predicted the 2025 US soybean average yield at 53.0 bushels per acre and production at 4.260 billion bushels [8]. - StoneX: Kept the forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean and summer corn harvests largely unchanged, with a 0.1% increase in the 2025/26 soybean production forecast [9]. - Imea: The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state from October 27 - 31 was 502.44 Brazilian reals per ton [9]. - Deral: The soybean planting area in Parana state reached 79% of the expected area, with 93% of the evaluated area having good growth [9]. - EU: As of November 2, the 2025/26 palm oil, soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed imports were 960000 tons, 3.81 million tons, 6.11 million tons, and 1.26 million tons respectively, all lower than the previous year [10][11]. - Kazakhstan: Exports of livestock feed meal in September 2025 reached a record high of 305000 tons, 2.5 times the previous year [11]. - Baltic Dry Index: Rose 13 points or 0.7% to 1958 points due to increased demand for Capesize vessels [11]. - 国内供需 - On November 4, soybean oil and palm oil total sales were 23200 tons, a 121% increase from the previous day [13]. - On November 4, the total soybean meal sales of major domestic oil mills were 70100 tons, a decrease of 34200 tons from the previous day. The national oil mill operating rate was 51.51%, a 2.37% decrease [13]. - As of November 4, the national soybean oil port inventory was 1199000 tons, a decrease of 35000 tons from October 28 [13]. - The average prices of piglets, live pigs, and pork in China changed compared to the previous week and the same period last year [13]. - On November 4, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" decreased by 0.13 points, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index decreased by 0.16 points [14]. 宏观要闻 - 国际要闻 - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 70.1%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 29.9% [17]. - The US Red Book commercial retail sales annual rate increased 5.7% in the week ending November 1 [17]. - The US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill on November 4, and the government "shutdown" is set to become the longest in history [18]. - The US API crude oil inventory in the week ending October 31 was 6.521 million barrels [18]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the benchmark interest rate at 3.60% and is cautious about further easing [18]. - 国内要闻 - On November 4, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0885, up 18 points [20]. - On November 4, the People's Bank of China conducted 117.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 357.8 billion yuan [20]. - On November 5, the People's Bank of China will conduct 700 billion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations [20]. 资金流向 On November 4, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 15.329 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 9.065 billion yuan in commodity futures and 6.369 billion yuan in stock index futures, and a net inflow of 0.01 billion yuan in treasury bond futures [23]. 套利跟踪 No specific content is provided in the given report.