2025年房地产三季报综述：毛利逐步企稳，包袱加速出清

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the real estate industry, with expectations of stabilization in gross profit margins and continued balance sheet clearing [1][68]. Core Insights - The report highlights that low-margin projects are concluding, with signs of gross profit margin stabilization by Q3 2025. Key developers' gross profit margin has been declining since 2019 but is expected to stabilize in 2025 due to high land costs and insufficient market price forecasts. Developers have been forced to reduce prices to clear inventory amid sales declines and financing constraints, confirming asset impairment losses [1][68]. - The balance sheet shrinking continues, but the decline in asset expansion is narrowing. By Q3 2025, the assets of 36 key developers net decreased by RMB 557.4 billion, a 2% decline from 2024, primarily due to reduced profit expansion and equity contraction [1][68]. - Despite the ongoing losses, the report notes that historical burdens are clearing faster, with net profit continuing to show significant losses. The net profit margin, excluding investment profit and fair value changes, fell by 2.6 percentage points to -4.1% [1][68]. Summary by Sections 1. Balance Sheet Shrinking and Performance Clearing - The report states that the asset expansion of 36 key developers net decreased by RMB 557.4 billion in Q3 2025, a 2% decline from 2024, due to reduced profit expansion and equity contraction [6][68]. - Liabilities net decreased by RMB 465.6 billion, continuing the trend since 2021, but the decline is narrowing [6][68]. - The net profit continued to show significant losses, with a net profit margin of -4.1% [1][68]. 2. Sales Recovery Under Pressure and Inventory Revitalization - The report indicates that real estate sales continue to decline, with on-balance and off-balance repayments down 17% and 19%, respectively, although the decline is narrowing compared to 2024 [1][68]. - Developers are cautious in public land acquisition, leading to a decline in both on-balance and off-balance land reserves to ease financial and liability pressure [1][68]. - The inventory turnover rate has reached a new high due to accelerated completion and inventory clearance efforts [1][68].