UMC25Q3跟踪报告：Q3产能利用率环比提升至78%，指引2026年晶圆出货量持续增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [60]. Core Insights - UMC's Q3 2025 revenue reached NT$ 59.127 billion, with a net profit of NT$ 14.98 billion, and an ASP of $862 (equivalent to 8-inch wafers), while capacity utilization improved to 78% [1][20]. - The company expects wafer shipments to continue growing through 2026, with a projected annual growth rate in wafer shipments reaching low double digits for 2025 [3][25]. - The 22nm revenue contribution has exceeded 10%, indicating a growing market share in advanced technology nodes [2][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was NT$ 59.127 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.25% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.63% due to higher wafer shipments [1][20]. - Gross margin for Q3 2025 was 29.8%, down 4.0 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, attributed to improved capacity utilization [1][20]. - Net profit for Q3 2025 was NT$ 14.98 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.52% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 68.28% [1][20]. Capacity and Utilization - UMC's Q3 2025 wafer shipments totaled 1 million pieces (equivalent to 12-inch wafers), with a capacity utilization rate of 78%, exceeding guidance expectations [1][20]. - The company anticipates a capacity utilization rate of 75% for Q4 2025, with stable ASP in USD terms [3][25]. Market Segmentation - In Q3 2025, revenue by application was segmented as follows: Communications 42%, Consumer 29%, Computers 12%, and Others 17% [2]. - The revenue contribution from 40nm and below nodes accounted for 52%, with 22/28nm nodes contributing 35% [2]. Future Guidance - For 2025, UMC projects a low double-digit percentage growth in wafer shipments, with 8-inch wafers expected to see high single-digit growth [3][25]. - Capital expenditures for 2025 are maintained at $1.8 billion, with 90% allocated to 12-inch wafer fabs and 10% to 8-inch wafer fabs [3][25].